National Geographic Society

World leaders gathering in Copenhagen next month for the UN Climate summit face hard choices needed to combat climate change and enhance global energy security, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said today.

The intergovernmental organization, which acts as energy policy advisor to 28 member countries in their effort to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for their citizens, released its World Energy Outlook 2009 (WEO-2009) in London today.

The report compares two scenarios: business as usual, which could result in a steep rise in global temperatures, and a "450 Scenario," in which aggressive targets are set to limit the long-term concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to keep the global temperature rise relatively modest.

"WEO-2009 provides both a caution and grounds for optimism," said Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of IEA, in a statement released by IEA in London.

"Caution, because a continuation of current trends in energy use puts the world on track for a rise in temperature of up to 6°C and poses serious threats to global energy security.

"Optimism, because there are cost-effective solutions to avoid severe climate change while also enhancing energy security--and these are within reach as the new Outlook shows," Tanaka said.

Although, as one of the consequences of the financial crisis, global energy use is set to fall this year, WEO-2009 projects that it will soon resume its upward trend if government policies don't change.

Reference Scenario

In this "Reference Scenario," in which the trajectory of global energy use remains unchanged, demand increases by 40 percent between now and 2030, reaching 16.8 billion tonnes of oil equivalent, IEA said.

Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy mix, accounting for more than three-quarters of incremental demand.

Non-OECD countries will account for over 90 percent of this increase, and China and India alone for over half.

Non-OECD countries account for 93 percent of the increase in global demand for primary energy between 2007 and 2030, driven largely by China & India.

© OECD/IEA - 2009

In addition to increasing susceptibility to energy price spikes, the Reference Scenario projects a persistently high level of spending on oil and gas imports which would represent a substantial financial burden on import-dependent consumers.

China will overtake the U.S. around 2025 to become the world's biggest spender on oil and gas imports.

The energy poverty challenge will remain unresolved with 1.3 billion people still without electricity in 2030 from 1.5 billion today; though universal access could be achieved with investment of only $35 billion per year in 2008-2030.

450 Scenario

"WEO-2009 demonstrates that containing climate change is possible but will require a profound transformation of the energy sector," according to IEA's statement.

"A 450 Scenario sets out an aggressive timetable of actions needed to limit the long-term concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to 450 parts per million of carbon-dioxide equivalent and keep the global temperature rise to around 2°C above pre-industrial levels."

To achieve this scenario, fossil-fuel demand would need to peak by 2020 and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions to fall to 26.4 gigatonnes in 2030 from 28.8 Gt in 2007.

"At the IEA Ministerial meeting, a large majority of ministers showed their intention to take the lead, organize themselves and commit to the challenge to reach the 450 Scenario--the energy path of Green Growth. Only by mitigation action in all sectors and regions can we turn the 450 Scenario into reality," IEA's Tanaka said.

An additional $10.5 trillion of investment is needed in total in the 450 Scenario, with measures to boost energy efficiency accounting for most of the abatement through to 2030. 

© OECD/IEA - 2009

In this scenario, asccording to IEA, energy efficiency is the largest contributor, accounting for over half of total abatement by 2030.

Low-carbon energy technologies also play a crucial role: around 60 percent of global electricity production comes from renewables (37 percent), nuclear (18 percent) and plants fitted with carbon capture and storage (5 percent) in 2030.

Dramatic shift in car sales

Also in the 450 Scenario, a dramatic shift in car sales occurs, with hybrids, plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles representing almost 60 percent of sales in 2030, from around 1 percent today, IEA said.

"Compared to the Reference Scenario, cumulative incremental investment of $10.5 trillion is needed in the 450 Scenario in low-carbon energy technologies and energy efficiency by 2030," IEA said.

But in addition to avoiding severe climate change, this cost would be largely offset by economic, health and energy-security benefits. Energy bills in transport, buildings and industry alone are reduced by $8.6 trillion globally over the period 2010-2030, according to IEA.

"The challenge for climate negotiators is to agree on instruments that will give the right incentives to ensure that the necessary investments are made and on mechanisms to finance those investments in non-OECD countries," Tanaka said.

Oil prices threat to world economy

WEO-2009 also identifies higher oil prices, coupled with the downturn in oil sector investment, as a serious threat to the world economy, just as it is beginning to recover.

As a result of the financial crisis, investment in upstream oil and gas has already been cut by over $90 billion this year compared with 2008. While oil demand has dropped sharply, in the Reference Scenario it starts recovering in 2010, reaching 88 mb/d in 2015 and then 105 mb/d in 2030.

"Calling for increased investment in fossil-fuel supply is not inconsistent with the need to move to a low-carbon energy pathway," Tanaka said. "Even in the 450 Scenario, OPEC production still increases substantially in the period to 2030, boosting those countries' revenues in real terms to four times their level of the previous 23 years."

Whatever climate policies are introduced, natural gas--a special focus in WEO-2009--is also set to continue to play a bridging role in meeting the world's sustainable energy needs.

In the Reference Scenario, gas demand rises by 41 percent from 3.0 trillion cubic meters in 2007 to 4.3 tcm in 2030. Gas demand also continues to expand in the 450 Scenario but is 17 percent lower in 2030 than in the Reference Scenario thanks to more efficient use, lower electricity demand and increased switching to non-fossil energy sources, IEA said.

Shale gas

The recent rapid development of unconventional gas resources--notably shale gas--in North America has transformed the gas-market outlook, the report says. "Unconventional gas is unquestionably a game-changer in North America with potentially significant implications for the rest of the world," Tanaka said.

The share of unconventional gas in total U.S. gas output jumped from 44 percent in 2005 to around 50 percent in 2008 and, in the Reference Scenario, is projected to rise to almost 60 percent in 2030.

WEO-2009 also provides a focus on Southeast Asia in recognition of its growing influence on energy markets. In the Reference Scenario, Southeast Asia's energy demand expands by 76 percent in 2007-2030. "Coupled with strong growth in China and India, this robust demand in Southeast Asia is refocusing the global energy landscape increasingly towards Asia," Tanaka said.

Researchers have found a migration route of pronghorn antelope that ranks among the farthest for any land mammal in the Western Hemisphere, the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and the Idaho-based Lava Lake Institute for Science and Conservation, said in a news statement.

Photo by W.B. Karesh

The route stretches from the base of Idaho's Pioneers Mountains to the continental divide's Beaverhead Mountains, passing through Craters of the Moon National Monument and Reserve--a round trip of more than 160 miles.

"The route crosses federal, state, and private land and narrows in one stretch to a bottleneck less than two football fields wide.

Migration map courtesy of WCS

There, animals are restricted by mountains, fences, a highway, and fields of jagged lava from Craters of the Moon National Monument and Preserve," WCS said.

The discovery is part of an ongoing study to track pronghorn using GPS and radio collars. Investigators include Scott Bergen of the Wildlife Conservation Society, Tess O'Sullivan of the Lava Lake Institute of Science and Conservation, and Mark Hurley of Idaho Fish and Game.

"This study shows that pronghorn are the true marathoners of the American West," said Scott Bergen, project director for WCS. "With these new findings, we can confirm that Idaho supports a major overland mammal migration--something that is becoming increasingly rare in the U.S. and worldwide."

Lewis and Clark called pronghorn "speed goats."  They can reach speeds of 60 mph, making them second only to cheetahs in speed for land animals, according to WCS. Once numbering in the millions, pronghorn have been reduced by some 90-95 percent although almost a million still live in the American West.

NGS photo of pronghorn by Sam Abell

To establish the newly discovered migration route, the researchers tracked the pronghorn's daily movements during their annual migration. They estimate 100-200 pronghorn currently use the migration route. During the winter, the pronghorn congregate with other regional herds from the area, making it Idaho's largest pronghorn herd of around one thousand animals, WCS said.

"Growing interest in development of large-scale wind farms and their associated power lines could threaten the migration route."

The newly discovered route is threatened by increased habitat fragmentation from development and other land-use changes, the researchers said. "Growing interest in development of large-scale wind farms and their associated power lines could threaten the migration route."

Both sexes sport impressive, backward-curving horns. The horns split to form forward-pointing prongs that give the species its name.

NGS photo by Bates Littlehales

As the American West continues to face increased development pressure, preserving migratory corridors will become more and more crucial to safeguarding large populations of wildlife like pronghorn, said Jodi Hilty, director of North America Programs for the Wildlife Conservation Society, and author of the book Corridor Ecology. "We have lost so many migrations globally, that these sorts of finds should inspire more of us to help give this uniquely American species a chance to roam in Idaho and throughout its range."

WCS is working with ranchers, conservationists, and public lands managers to safeguard the large family ranches that have helped support this migration route over the past 100 years. The Pioneers Alliance, a coalition of landowners, ranchers, conservationists, and state and federal land managers, is working to develop conservation easements and other mechanisms to protect working ranches and farms that are part of the pronghorn migration route.

"We are committed to working with many partners, including private landowners and state and federal land managers to take the steps needed to sustain this long distance migration," said Tess O'Sullivan, program director for the Lava Lake Institute.

Some of the data collected by the GPS collars will help researchers better understand--and ultimately protect--the pronghorn's little-known wintering grounds, WCS said. "Data will also be used to inform the Western Governor's Association, which continues to work toward protecting pronghorn migration.

"Recently the Governors of Idaho and Montana signed agreements with the Departments of Interior, Agriculture, and Energy to improve management on federal lands where pronghorn migrate. In addition, Congress has recognized the value of wildlife migrations corridors as a strategy for adapting to global warming in pending climate change legislation."

Watch this National Geographic Wild Chronicles video "Epic migration seen 'through eyes'of' antelope". It covers the work of National Geographic grantee Joe Riis, a wildlife photojournalist and biologist who was the first to document an entire pronghorn migration on foot.

In a separate project in 2005, Wildlife Conservation Society scientists used GPS collars to document another migratory herd of pronghorn in Wyoming that travel from Grand Teton National Park to the Green River Valley. "With the leadership of the U.S. Forest Service, the nation's first designated wildlife migration corridor to protect 150-mile round-trip movement of pronghorn in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem was created. It has since been safeguarded in a unique public/private partnership called 'Path of the Pronghorn,'" WCS said.

The project which led to the discovery of the new migration route is being supported by the Wildlife Conservation Society, Lava Lake Institute for Science and Conservation, Idaho Department of Fish and Game, Bureau of Land Management, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, Idaho Conservation League, LightHawk Aviation, National Park Foundation, the National Park Service, The Conservation Fund, Wood River Land Trust, Carey area landowners and ranchers, The Nature Conservancy, and the Craters of the Moon Natural History Association.

National Geographic Channel will premiere an epic series about animal migrations in Fall 2010.

Related National Geographic News stories:

Rallying to Protect US Antelope Migration Route

Photos: Epic Migration Seen "Through Eyes of" Antelope

Fifty years ago representatives from twelve nations meeting in Washington signed the Antarctic Treaty "in the interest of all mankind that Antarctica shall continue forever to be used exclusively for peaceful purposes."

Now, on that anniversary, on December 1, an Antarctic Treaty Summit is being convened in Washington.

Representatives of governments, nongovernmental organizations, commercial entities, academic institutions, and indigenous people's organizations will review the treaty as a remarkable accomplishment of international cooperation.

And they will ponder how the Antarctic Treaty shows the way to international management of not only other international spaces, such as the deep seas and outer space, but also shared responsibilities for the atmosphere, fisheries, and similar transboundary resources.

The Antarctic Treaty Summit: Science-Policy Interactions in International Governance will be convened in Washington, D.C. from November 30-December 3, 2009. The organizers invite broad participation in the Summit, "which is being convened with the sprit of balanced international, interdisciplinary and inclusive engagement."  Registration and other information can be found on the Antarctic Treaty Summit Web site. 

Forever Declaration

"We will use the Antarctic Treaty Summit to proclaim a 'Forever Declaration,' which everyone in the world can sign, elaborating on the concept of 'forever' from the preamble to the Antarctic Treaty," says Paul Berkman, chair of the International Board for the Antarctic Treaty Summit.

"The Antarctic Treaty is as an example of how different nations can cooperate for peaceful purposes in ways that are equitable, balanced, continuous, and offer hope to the world."

The Forever Declaration will be introduced on December 1, the 50th anniversary of the Antarctic Treaty, and will be open for signature by anyone via the Internet.

Image of Antarctica courtesy NASA

"It is something which the entire world can make a shared statement about cooperation, using regions for peaceful purposes only, based on the notion of common interests," Berkman says. "That is the hope and aspiration of the Forever Declaration."

Berkman has a remarkable story to tell about the Antarctic Treaty, from its origins in the Cold War and the superpower race to acquire nuclear weaponry and dominate outer space, to the way the treaty was able to harness science as a framework for diplomacy.

In this three-part series, Berkman tells the story:

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