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Results tagged “warming” from NatGeo News Watch

Slowing deforestation is the most promising new strategy to protect the planet from disruptive climate change--but if it is not done carefully and sensibly biodiversity could be risk, an international group of scientists warned today.

"While it is clear that the massive destruction of tropical rainforests poses a serious threat to the incredibly rich biodiversity found on Earth, others hazards are not so explicit," the group says in an essay published in the November 16 issue of the journal Current Biology.

The group made their statement in anticipation of an international agreement that global warming can be slowed by reducing carbon emissions caused by deforestation.

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Truck loaded with logs harvested from an Indonesian forest.

NGS stock photo by James P. Blair

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) consists of 192 countries that seek to develop intergovernmental policies that address challenges posed by climate change. The UNFCCC will meet in Copenhagen in December of 2009 to complete an agreement on incentives to reduce deforestation.

"Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) proposes to compensate tropical forest countries if they reduce their rate of deforestation, thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and includes strategies for conservation and enhancement of forest carbon stocks," the scientists say in a news statement.

"REDD should have multiple benefits. But, unfortunately, although the final rules might safeguard carbon stocks, they may fall short of their potential to protect biodiversity," says the author who organized the collaboration, Stuart L. Pimm from The Nicholas School of the Environment at Duke University. Pimm is a regular blogger for NatGeo News Watch and a former member of the National Geographic Committee for Research and Exploration.

Pimm and colleagues explain in their essay how REDD policies might have a less than advantageous impact on biodiversity and suggest how careful policies might reduce carbon emissions and benefit biodiversity.

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Aerial view of clear cutting on a mountain side in Papua New Guinea.

NGS stock photo by James P. Blair

The researchers point out that if REDD emphasizes reducing deforestation rates, governments are likely to focus on areas that are cheapest to protect and that areas with high biodiversity might not be cost-competitive.

"Further, forests with the greatest density of carbon might not be the most essential locations for biodiversity conservation. There is also concern that deforestation processes will not be effectively abated by REDD, but simply displaced to other areas," the scientists say in their statement.

"Implementing REDD might accelerate the conversion and degradation of high biodiversity areas where REDD or other conservation funding is not available."

"Implementing REDD might accelerate the conversion and degradation of high biodiversity areas where REDD or other conservation funding is not available," Pimm explained.

The authors make several suggestions for maximizing the positive biodiversity impacts of REDD policies.

They propose that rules to conserve, assess and perhaps even financially support biodiversity should be included in the text of the Copenhagen agreement.

"Biodiversity, itself, is essential to ecosystem adaptation. Ensuring that REDD policies not only reduce carbon emissions but conserve biodiversity will ensure that humanity and the biosphere can be as resilient as possible to climate disruptions," Pimm said.

Deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon dropped 45.7 percent from August 2008 to July 2009, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced yesterday during a meeting with state governors and mayors in Brasília.

Data based on analysis of satellite imagery by the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) suggests that 2,700 square miles (7,000 square kilometers) of forest were cleared in Brazil during the 12-month period, the lowest rate since the government started monitoring deforestation in 1988.

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Photo of Amazon forest courtesy of Brazil's Ministry of Environment

"The new deforestation data represents an extraordinary and significant reduction for Brazil. Climate change is the most challenging issue that we face today," Lula said.

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Photo of Brazil's President Lula at yesterday's event by Ricardo Stuckert/PR

The slowing deforestation levels are primarily a result of the Action Plan for Deforestation Control and Prevention in the Amazon, a set of cross-government policies and measures launched in 2004 to improve monitoring, strengthen enforcement, define conservation areas and foster sustainable activities in the region, said a statement from Brazil's Secretariat for Social Communication (SECOM).

"With the support of 13 government agencies, the plan played a major role in helping reduce deforestation in the Amazon by 74.8 percent from 2004 to 2009."

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Deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon 

Surveillance and enforcement

The INPE data indicates that the projected 32 percent increase in government inspections over the last year inhibited illegal deforestation in the Amazon, the statement added.

"Satellite images from INPE's near real-time deforestation detection system enabled government inspectors to focus their efforts where deforestation is most critical and act quickly to prevent new areas from being cleared.

"As a result of this surveillance, the Brazilian Environment Institute apprehended around 230,000 cubic meters of wood, 414 trucks and tractors, and embargoed 502,000 hectares [1,240,000 acres] of land linked to illegal deforestation activities in the region over the period from August 2008 to July 2009, leading the government to issue over R$ 2.8 billion reais [U.S.$ 1.6 billion] in fines.

"In addition to fines, the government used other tools to financially constrain those whose activities contribute to the destruction of the forest. This includes a resolution enacted by the National Monetary Council in mid-2008 that requires farmers and ranchers in the Amazon to meet environmental criteria in order to obtain loans from public and private banks."

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Brazil is home to 60 percent of the Amazon. The "Legal Brazilian Amazon" ("Amazonia Legal Brasileira") is an administrative region that spreads across the states of Acre, Amapá, Amazonas, Mato Grosso, Pará, Rondônia, Roraima and portions of Tocantins, Maranhão and Goiás. It represents 53 percent of Brazil's total land area (about 2 million square miles or 5 million square kilometers), has a population of 25 million people, and generates just under 8 percent of Brazil's total GDP.

Around 43 percent (800,000 square miles or 2.1 million square kilometers) of the Amazon land falls within Protected Areas or Indigenous Lands Around 21 percent of the Amazon are federal or state public lands outside Protected Areas and Indigenous Lands. There are about 400 identified and demarcated indigenous lands in the region, home to between 170,000 and 200,000 indigenous people.

Image and caption courtesy of Brazil's Ministry of Environment

Conservation and sustainable activities

Federal and state governments also worked to create around 50 million hectares [123 million acres] in new conservation units in the Amazon from 2004 to 2008, while another 10 million hectares [25 million acres] in indigenous lands were granted recognition in the same period, SECOM said. "Today, 43 percent of the Legal Amazon is federally protected."

The government also initiated a concession scheme for sustainable management in public forests. The first concessions were granted in August 2008, enabling three private groups to carry sustainable logging and extraction activities in 237,000 acres (96,000 hectares) of the Jamari Public Forest, in the state of Rondônia.

Deforestation and climate change

Deforestation in the Amazon region is the main source of Brazil's greenhouse gas emissions, SECOM said. According to the first National Inventory of Greenhouse Gases, up to 75 percent of Brazil's emissions come from deforestation and land-use change.

"For this reason, tackling deforestation is at the center of Brazil's strategy to combat global warming. Launched in December 2008, the National Plan on Climate Change sets targets to cut deforestation rates by 80 percent by 2020, which would avoid 4.8 billion tons in CO2 emissions during this period.

"To meet these goals, the plan sets out a number of actions and programs to combat illegal logging and provide sustainable economic alternatives to the people living in the Amazon, among other measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in different sectors," SECOM said.

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Photo of Amazon forest courtesy of Brazil's Ministry of Environment

Further action required, conservationists say

Although it is essential to recognize the efforts made by the federal and state governments as well as Brazilian society in general, further action is required, said WWF-Brazil CEO Denise Hamú.

"Deforestation needs to continue falling in a sustainable manner and must take place in other Brazilian biomes in addition to the Amazon, such as the Cerrado," she said in a statement issued by the conservation organization in response to President Lula's announcement.

Hamú also said that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, to be held in Copenhagen in December, will be a good opportunity for Brazil to defend the adoption of clear and ambitious emission reduction commitments by the participant countries.

"Deforestation numbers such as the ones showed today by President Lula strengthen Brazil's credentials to lead the climate negotiations and take the forefront in building a new development model for the world that respects the environment and the people."

"Deforestation numbers such as the ones showed today by President Lula strengthen Brazil's credentials to lead the climate negotiations and take the forefront in building a new development model for the world that respects the environment and the people", Hamú said.

"Among the other biomes, the most critical situation is found in the Cerrado," WWF-Brazil said. "While deforestation in the Amazon has finally fallen below 10,000 square kilometers, in the Cerrado it surpasses 20,000 square kilometers." The Cerrado is a vast tropical savanna region southeast of the Amazon.
 
36 football fields a minute

Despite conservation efforts, global deforestation continues at an alarming rate--13 million hectares per year, or 36 football fields a minute, WWF added. "It generates almost 20 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and halting forest loss has been identified as one of the most cost-effective ways to keep the world out of the danger zone of runaway climate change."

Apart from decreasing emissions caused by deforestation in the Amazon, Brazil needs to work on achieving reductions in the industry and transport sectors, and especially in energy generation and transmission processes, added Cláudio Maretti, WWF-Brazil's conservation director.

"After all, the planet urgently needs expressive greenhouse gas emission reductions", he said. 

The coniferous forest that wraps around the subarctic latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere offers the world's best opportunity to apply conservation as a climate change strategy, according to a report released today.

The boreal forest, as it is called, must be preserved because it is holding vast amounts of carbon in and under its trees, and also because it offers a buffer for plants and animals impacted by climate change.

Cut down those trees and develop the land and all that carbon will be released into the atmosphere--and the animals and plants seeking sanctuary from the warmer lower latitudes will have nowhere to go.

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Carbon-rich wetlands in Canada's Northwest Territories.

Photo by Chad Delany, Ducks Unlimited

"When the world thinks of forests and their value to offset global warming, tropical forests come to mind," say the Boreal Songbird Initiative and the Canadian Boreal Initiative, sponsors of the report The Carbon the World Forgot.

The report released today shows that the global impact of Canada's boreal forest, which stores nearly twice as much carbon per acre as tropical forests, has been vastly underestimated.

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Canada's boreal forest

Map courtesy of Boreal Songbird Initiative

"The Carbon the World Forgot identifies the boreal forests of North America as not only the cornerstone habitat for key mammal species, but one of the most significant carbon stores in the world, the equivalent of 26 years of global emissions from burning fossil fuels, based on 2006 emissions levels. Globally, these forests store 22 percent of all carbon on the earth's land surface," says a statement accompanying the release of the report.

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Breakdown of carbon stored by global forest biome

Chart courtesy of Boreal Songbird Initiative

"Past accounting greatly underestimated the amount and depth of carbon stored in and under the boreal forest," says Jeff Wells, an author of the report. "In addition to carbon storage in trees, organic matter accumulated over millennia is stored in boreal peatlands and areas of permafrost. Some of this boreal carbon has been in place for up to 8,000 years."

"The boreal forest's status as the most intact forest left on Earth also offers a unique opportunity for plants and animals forced to adapt to shifting habitats."

The boreal forest's status as the most intact forest left on Earth also offers a unique opportunity for plants and animals forced to adapt to shifting habitats. Most other habitats today are highly fragmented by human activity, creating a variety of additional obstacles for species survival, the statement added.

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Oscar Lake in Canada's Northwest Territories

Photo by D. Langhorst, Ducks Unlimited

"In light of these findings, today's report urges that international negotiations on carbon and forest protection consider ways to account for and protect the boreal," the authors say.

"Any effective and affordable response to climate change should include preserving the world's remaining, carbon-rich old-growth forests," said Steve Kallick, director of the Pew Environment Group's International Boreal Conservation Campaign. "This report makes clear that nations must look not just at the tropics but at all the world's old-growth forests for climate change solutions."

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Top intact forests--largest in red, followed by yellow and green, representing forests undisturbed to date by humans.

Map courtesy of Boreal Songbird Initiative

"Keeping that carbon in place by protecting boreal forests is an important part of the climate equation," said Andrew Weaver, "If you cut down the boreal forest and disturb its peatlands, you release more carbon, accelerating climate change." Weaver of the University of Victoria is a lead author for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was awarded the Nobel Prize.

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Triangle Lake, part of northern Ontario's boreal forest

Photo by Jeff Wells, Boreal Songbird Initiative

"The collision of climate disruption and massive human degradation of ecosystems is seriously worrying globally," said conservation biologist Stuart Pimm of Duke University. "These changes are surely novel in earth's history. Maintaining the boreal forest's intactness will be critical to slowing ecosystem shifts and to providing migratory corridors for displaced wildlife." Stuart Pimm is a regular contributor to NatGeo News Watch. 

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Global warming is expected to affect caribou populations worldwide, like this small herd near MacMillan Pass, in Canada's Northwest Territories.

Photo by Larry Innes, Canadian Boreal Initiative

"Conservation can be an important tool in the fight to mitigate climate change," said Larry Innes, director of the Canadian Boreal Initiative, a sponsor of the report. "International protocols and legislation need to create opportunities to maintain the carbon stored in intact boreal forest soils, peatlands, and wetlands while enabling indigenous and local communities to take a leadership role in determining how to best conserve not only carbon, but the full suite of ecological, cultural and economic values that the boreal forest represents."

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The Bay-breasted warbler has declined 70 percent over the last 40 years. Only 7 percent of its boreal forest habitat is protected. The migratory bird breeds in the coniferous woodlands.

Photo by Jeff Nadler

More than 1,500 international scientists led by authors for the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommended in 2007 that at least half of Canada's boreal forest be protected from further disturbance--in large part to keep both the boreal forest carbon bank and internationally significant wildlife habitats intact.

Despite the current lack of international protocol, several Canadian First Nation, provincial, and federal governments have taken important steps to protect hundreds of millions of acres of Canada's carbon rich boreal forest. In all, scientists are recommending that at least 300 million hectares be protected.

Read on for more photos, maps, and the full text of the executive summary of the report The Carbon the World Forgot:

► Read This Entire Post

By April Reese
Special contributor to NatGeo News Watch

MERIDA, Mexico--Protecting the world´s remaining wilderness areas should be a top priority at internationial climate change talks scheduled for next month in Copenhagen, conservation groups said yesterday in a formal statement aimed at influencing the negotiations.

While the burning of fossil fuels such as oil and coal is responsible for the majority of emissions of carbon dioxide, a major contributor to climate change, the clearing of forests, wetlands and other wildlands accounts for 30 percent of carbon releases into the atmosphere, the groups said in the statement.

Left intact, wildlands absorb carbon dioxide, helping to offset emissions from fossil fuels.

"Runaway carbon emissions are driving the climate towards irreversible tipping points," the groups´"Message from Merida" reads. "This situation is in stark contrast to the world we can have if wilderness and its contribution to natural life support systems are properly valued and protected."

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About a dozen groups signed the statement yesterday during the WILD9 international wilderness conference, being held here this week. The signatories include Conservation International, the Wilderness Foundation Africa, Naturalia, Sanctuary Asia, and the Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society.

Currently, only about 15 percent of the worlds´land area is protected, said Nik Lopoukine, chair of the World Commission on Protected Areas, speaking during the conference.

The most recent draft of the new climate change agreement does not acknowledge the importance of protecting the world's wildlands, those familiar with the negotiations said.

"If we don't address this problem in the negotiations, climate change will only get worse," said Brendan Mackey, an ecologist with Australian National University.

Keeping wildlands whole will also help buffer ecosystems from the worst effects of a warming world, he said, explaining that the larger the protected area, the more resiliency an ecosystem has.

Pay to preserve?

Many conservationists and government officials are pushing for the creation of a system in which countries with high emissions can pay countries with abundant, carbon-absorbing wildlands to preserve them.

That approach, initially championed by Mexico but now gaining support among other developing nations, would create a financial incentive for developing countries to keep their natural areas intact while allowing the most polluting countries to offset some of their emissions, said Ernesto Enkerlin-Hoeflich, head of the Commission for Natural Protected Areas for United Mexican States, a government agency.

"It´s a cheaper way of reducing their carbon footprint," he said in an interview. "It´s basically to create a market and use that market to achieve emission reduction goals."

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Conservationists are calling for tropical forests like this one in Mexico's Calakmul Reserve to be protected to help address climate change.

Photo by Boyd Norton/via The WILD Foundation

Many developing countries contain tropical forests, which store about one-fourth of all the carbon sequestered in the world's trees. Consequently, these wilderness-rich but cash-poor nations could see significant economic benefits from such a market, Enkerlin-Hoeflich added.

Safeguards to prevent corruption and ensure that wildlands enrolled in the market stay intact still need to be worked out, supporters acknowledged. But with both developed and developing countries warming to the idea, momentum is building for a climate change agreement that includes wilderness, conservationists said.

"I think this will come through one way or the other," said Michael Sweatman, who sits on the WILD Foundation´s board.

The next round of climate change talks, which are conducted by the United Nations, will be held December 7-18 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

The National Geographic Society is a sponsor of WILD9.

World leaders gathering in Copenhagen next month for the UN Climate summit face hard choices needed to combat climate change and enhance global energy security, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said today.

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The intergovernmental organization, which acts as energy policy advisor to 28 member countries in their effort to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for their citizens, released its World Energy Outlook 2009 (WEO-2009) in London today.

The report compares two scenarios: business as usual, which could result in a steep rise in global temperatures, and a "450 Scenario," in which aggressive targets are set to limit the long-term concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to keep the global temperature rise relatively modest.

"WEO-2009 provides both a caution and grounds for optimism," said Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of IEA, in a statement released by IEA in London.

"Caution, because a continuation of current trends in energy use puts the world on track for a rise in temperature of up to 6°C and poses serious threats to global energy security.

"Optimism, because there are cost-effective solutions to avoid severe climate change while also enhancing energy security--and these are within reach as the new Outlook shows," Tanaka said.

Although, as one of the consequences of the financial crisis, global energy use is set to fall this year, WEO-2009 projects that it will soon resume its upward trend if government policies don't change.

Reference Scenario

In this "Reference Scenario," in which the trajectory of global energy use remains unchanged, demand increases by 40 percent between now and 2030, reaching 16.8 billion tonnes of oil equivalent, IEA said.

Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy mix, accounting for more than three-quarters of incremental demand.

Non-OECD countries will account for over 90 percent of this increase, and China and India alone for over half.

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Non-OECD countries account for 93 percent of the increase in global demand for primary energy between 2007 and 2030, driven largely by China & India.

© OECD/IEA - 2009

In addition to increasing susceptibility to energy price spikes, the Reference Scenario projects a persistently high level of spending on oil and gas imports which would represent a substantial financial burden on import-dependent consumers.

China will overtake the U.S. around 2025 to become the world's biggest spender on oil and gas imports.

The energy poverty challenge will remain unresolved with 1.3 billion people still without electricity in 2030 from 1.5 billion today; though universal access could be achieved with investment of only $35 billion per year in 2008-2030.

450 Scenario

"WEO-2009 demonstrates that containing climate change is possible but will require a profound transformation of the energy sector," according to IEA's statement.

"A 450 Scenario sets out an aggressive timetable of actions needed to limit the long-term concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to 450 parts per million of carbon-dioxide equivalent and keep the global temperature rise to around 2°C above pre-industrial levels."

To achieve this scenario, fossil-fuel demand would need to peak by 2020 and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions to fall to 26.4 gigatonnes in 2030 from 28.8 Gt in 2007.

"At the IEA Ministerial meeting, a large majority of ministers showed their intention to take the lead, organize themselves and commit to the challenge to reach the 450 Scenario--the energy path of Green Growth. Only by mitigation action in all sectors and regions can we turn the 450 Scenario into reality," IEA's Tanaka said.

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An additional $10.5 trillion of investment is needed in total in the 450 Scenario, with measures to boost energy efficiency accounting for most of the abatement through to 2030. 

© OECD/IEA - 2009

In this scenario, asccording to IEA, energy efficiency is the largest contributor, accounting for over half of total abatement by 2030.

Low-carbon energy technologies also play a crucial role: around 60 percent of global electricity production comes from renewables (37 percent), nuclear (18 percent) and plants fitted with carbon capture and storage (5 percent) in 2030.

Dramatic shift in car sales

Also in the 450 Scenario, a dramatic shift in car sales occurs, with hybrids, plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles representing almost 60 percent of sales in 2030, from around 1 percent today, IEA said.

"Compared to the Reference Scenario, cumulative incremental investment of $10.5 trillion is needed in the 450 Scenario in low-carbon energy technologies and energy efficiency by 2030," IEA said.

But in addition to avoiding severe climate change, this cost would be largely offset by economic, health and energy-security benefits. Energy bills in transport, buildings and industry alone are reduced by $8.6 trillion globally over the period 2010-2030, according to IEA.

"The challenge for climate negotiators is to agree on instruments that will give the right incentives to ensure that the necessary investments are made and on mechanisms to finance those investments in non-OECD countries," Tanaka said.

Oil prices threat to world economy

WEO-2009 also identifies higher oil prices, coupled with the downturn in oil sector investment, as a serious threat to the world economy, just as it is beginning to recover.

As a result of the financial crisis, investment in upstream oil and gas has already been cut by over $90 billion this year compared with 2008. While oil demand has dropped sharply, in the Reference Scenario it starts recovering in 2010, reaching 88 mb/d in 2015 and then 105 mb/d in 2030.

"Calling for increased investment in fossil-fuel supply is not inconsistent with the need to move to a low-carbon energy pathway," Tanaka said. "Even in the 450 Scenario, OPEC production still increases substantially in the period to 2030, boosting those countries' revenues in real terms to four times their level of the previous 23 years."

Whatever climate policies are introduced, natural gas--a special focus in WEO-2009--is also set to continue to play a bridging role in meeting the world's sustainable energy needs.

In the Reference Scenario, gas demand rises by 41 percent from 3.0 trillion cubic meters in 2007 to 4.3 tcm in 2030. Gas demand also continues to expand in the 450 Scenario but is 17 percent lower in 2030 than in the Reference Scenario thanks to more efficient use, lower electricity demand and increased switching to non-fossil energy sources, IEA said.

Shale gas

The recent rapid development of unconventional gas resources--notably shale gas--in North America has transformed the gas-market outlook, the report says. "Unconventional gas is unquestionably a game-changer in North America with potentially significant implications for the rest of the world," Tanaka said.

The share of unconventional gas in total U.S. gas output jumped from 44 percent in 2005 to around 50 percent in 2008 and, in the Reference Scenario, is projected to rise to almost 60 percent in 2030.

WEO-2009 also provides a focus on Southeast Asia in recognition of its growing influence on energy markets. In the Reference Scenario, Southeast Asia's energy demand expands by 76 percent in 2007-2030. "Coupled with strong growth in China and India, this robust demand in Southeast Asia is refocusing the global energy landscape increasingly towards Asia," Tanaka said.

Climate scientist Stephen H. Schneider could easily say "I told you so," now that data pour in on an almost daily basis to prove what he has been warning about for many years: Greenhouses gases we are pumping into the atmosphere are disrupting Earth's climate, threatening our way of life, if not our survival.

Instead, he remains hopeful that it's not too late to do something about it.

Science-as-a-Contact-Sport-cover.jpgSchneider, along with his colleagues on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Al Gore, won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts to enlighten the public about human-induced climate change and to inspire action to confront it. The Stanford University climatologist is also a National Geographic Fellow.

In SCIENCE AS A CONTACT SPORT: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate (National Geographic Books; ISBN: 978-1-4262-0540-8; on-sale date Nov. 3, 2009; $28; hardcover), Schneider chronicles the infighting and backroom negotiations, the courage of some and the ignorance and duplicity of others, that have inhibited the world community from implementing solutions sooner to combat the dangers of a warming Earth.

Watch this video interview with Schneider, in which he discusses why it is difficult to follow the raging debate about climate change, where to get reliable information, his hopes for COP15 (the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen from December 7 to 18),and what steps governments and individuals can can take toward positive action.

 

Professor Schneider's Web site: climatechange.net

Video interview of Stephen Schneider by David Braun

Decades may have been lost and most of the early, dire predictions are happening--sea levels rising; glaciers melting; unprecedented heat waves and wildfires; intensification of hurricanes as they move over warmed oceans; and arctic sea ice rapidly thinning all year long and increasingly disappearing in summer.

Further delay may result in irreversible conditions, including melted ice sheets, redrawn coastlines and species driven to extinction.

Steps toward positive action

But Schneider remains hopeful, offering a realistic prescription for how governments and individuals can take steps toward positive action.

For governments, that means creating energy-efficiency standards for buildings and machines; investing in clean technology research; cap and trade or carbon taxes; geoengineering schemes to try to remove CO2 from the air and help prevent some of the large impacts of climate change; and smart growth planning.

Individuals can avoid unnecessary automobile use; conserve energy at home; buy energy-efficient cars and appliances; eat more local foodstuffs and less imported foods; show up at city council meetings to advocate for a greener town; and support local politicians who stand up for sustainability.

In addition to his collective share of a Nobel Peace Prize, Schneider is winner of a MacArthur "genius grant" and has been an expert adviser to officials in the Nixon, Carter, Reagan, Clinton, George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush and Obama administrations. He is the Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies, a professor in the Department of Biology, and a Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University.

National Geographic Books provided a copy of SCIENCE AS A CONTACT SPORT: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate for this entry.

Can we eat our way to a better future for the planet's climate? Only if we become more responsible farmers.

The twin battles to improve food security for a growing world population and contain climate change can be fought on the same front--the world's farmland, the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) said today.

"Agriculture not only suffers the impacts of climate change, it is also responsible for 14 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. But agriculture has the potential to be an important part of the solution, through mitigation--reducing and/or removing--a significant amount of global emissions," FAO said in a statement.

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NGS photo of farming in Ethiopia by James P. Blair

Some 70 percent of this mitigation potential could be realized in developing countries, the agency believes.

"Many effective strategies for climate change mitigation from agriculture also benefit food security, development and adaptation to climate change," said FAO assistant director-general Alexander Müller. "The challenge is to capture these potential synergies, while managing trade-offs that may have negative impacts on food security."

The FAO released its report, Food Security and Agricultural Mitigation in Developing Countries: Options for Capturing Synergies, during the Barcelona Climate Change Talks this week.

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The Barcelona talks are the last negotiating session before the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen next month. The Copenhagen meetings include the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP 15) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and there are high hopes that the talks will produce global consensus for a workable plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions beyond 2012.

Scientists have warned that if carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere continue to rise because of human activities the planet's climate could change drastically, setting off intense warming, droughts, flooding and rising sea levels.

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NGS photo of farming in South Africa by Kip Ross

One of the options that could be part of the climate change mitigation is climate-smart farming.

The most important technical options for climate change mitigation from agriculture are improvements in cropland and grazing land management and the restoration of organic soils and degraded lands, FAO said today.

"Nearly 90 percent of the technical mitigation potential of agriculture comes from soil carbon sequestration. These options involve increasing the levels of organic matter, of which carbon is the main component, in soil. This can translate into better plant nutrient content, increased water retention capacity and better structure, eventually leading to higher yields and greater resilience."

Agricultural mitigation options that sequester carbon can include:

  • low tillage
  • utilizing residues for composting or mulching
  • use of perennial crops to cover soil
  • re-seeding or improving grazing management on grasslands.

Other options involve difficult trade-offs, FAO noted, with benefits for mitigation but potentially negative consequences for food security and development. "In some cases, there are synergies in the long-run, but trade-offs in the short-run."

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NGS photo of farm in Virginia, U.S., by Anne Francis Revis

"Biofuel production provides a clean alternative to fossil fuel but can compete for land and water resources needed for food production. Restoration of organic soils enables greater carbon sequestration, but may reduce the land available for food production. Rangeland restoration may improve carbon sequestration but involves short-term reductions in herder incomes by limiting the number of livestock."

Some trade-offs can be managed through measures to increase efficiency or through payment of incentives or compensation, the report says. "Many of the technical mitigation options are readily available and could be deployed immediately. But while these actions often generate a net positive benefit over time, they involve significant up-front costs."

Other barriers, such as uncertain property rights, lack of information and technical assistance or access to appropriate seeds and fertilizer, also need to be overcome. "Linking to ongoing agricultural development efforts that address these same issues is one cost effective way of doing this," said Kostas Stamoulis, director of the FAO Agricultural Development Economics Division.

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NGS photo of citrus farm in Japan by James L. Stanfield

The report outlines possible design features for financing mechanisms that could help unlock agriculture's potential benefits for climate change mitigation, food security and agricultural development.

"A range of financing options---public, public-private and carbon markets--are currently under negotiation for climate change mitigation actions in developing countries. These could be future sources of finance for agricultural mitigation actions, the report says, as could a dedicated international fund to support agricultural mitigation in developing countries and coordination with financing from official development assistance for agricultural development."

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NGS photo of rice farming in China by James P. Blair

Despite its significant potential, agricultural mitigation has remained relatively marginal within the climate change negotiations. FAO said.

"To capture the multiple benefits of agriculture. the report recommends a work programme on agricultural mitigation within the UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice to help address methodological issues related to implementation. It also proposes country-led piloting of action and field testing, using a phased approach linked to national capabilities and supported by capacity building and financial/technology transfers."

The global warming movement finally went global yesterday, said 350.org co-founder Bill McKibben, in reaction to the International Day of Climate Action, marked yesterday by more than 5,000 demonstrations in 181 countries.

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A 350 is mowed into a meadow 25 miles (40 kilometers) north of Copenhagen, where the United Nations Climate Change Conference will be held this December. This picture was taken as part of the 350.org International Day of Climate Action on October 24, 2009.

Photo courtesy of Henrik Jørgensen, Chairman of The Strøgårdsvang Mowers Association

Founded by McKibben, an American environmentalist and author, 350.org is an international campaign dedicated to building a movement to unite the world around solutions to the climate crisis. Its mission is "to inspire the world to rise to the challenge of the climate crisis--to create a new sense of urgency and of possibility for our planet."

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Students in Cebu City, Philippines gather in a giant 350.

Photo by Vito Selma/courtesy of 350.org

350 parts per million is what many scientists, climate experts, and progressive national governments think is the safe upper limit for CO2 in the atmosphere, 350.0rg explained in a press release about yesterday's global demonstration.

"Scientists have concluded that we are already above the safe zone at our current 390ppm, and that unless we are able to rapidly return to 350 ppm this century, we risk reaching tipping points and irreversible impacts such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and major methane releases from increased permafrost melt."

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More than 1,200 people took part in an event at the Sydney Opera House to call for climate action as part of the 350.org Global Day of Climate Action on October 24. Hundreds took part in spelling out 350 on the steps of Sydney's iconic Opera House.

Photo courtesy of 350.org

For yesterday's International Day of Climate Action, 350.org combining the Web and SMS networks, distributing Flip video cameras, and training young people in "climate workshops" on multiple continents.

"Event organizers filmed and photographed their actions and uploaded them immediately to the group's website and Flickr account, and organizers will displayed hundreds of them on the giant advertising screens of Times Square [in New York City] before hand-delivering shots to United Nations delegations on Monday," 350.org said.

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Joseph Rotella and Aravinda Ananada hold a 350 sign at the melting glaciers of Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania.

Photo courtesy of 350.0rg

Thousands of photos from 5,248 rallies and protests spread across 181 countries flooded into the Web servers of 350.org over the last 36 hours--marking, 350.org said, "the most widespread day of political action in the planet's history."

"And there wasn't a rock star or movie actor in sight," McKibben said. "It was ordinary people rallying around a scientific data point to send the message that our leaders actually need to lead."

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Fisheries Minister of the Maldives Ibrahim Didi signing the 350 declaration during the underwater cabinet meeting on October 17.

Photo courtesy of 350.org

"Parts per million CO2 sounds too obscure an idea to attract crowds on six continents, but there were thousands of people in the streets from Togo and Ethiopia and Paraguay to Seattle and London and Sydney," McKibben said.

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The Wilderness Society made this statement in a logged portion of the forests of the Central Highlands of Victoria, Australia (Just outside of Melbourne).

Photo by Andrew North, Cloud 9 (Aerial Photography)/courtesy of 350.0rg

Highlights of the day, 350.org said, included a "planet-scale game of Scrabble," with citizens in Wellington, New Zealand, and Sydney, Australia, forming giant human 3s, London, UK, and New Delhi, India, enormous human 5s, and Quito, Ecuador, and Copenhagen, Denmark, massive 0s.

"The point was you had to put them together across global borders if you wanted to solve the puzzle," said 350.org media coordinator Jamie Henn. "Just like the climate negotiations set for Copenhagen in December."

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Women in Bangladesh

Photo courtesy of 350.org

Around the shore of the Dead Sea Israeli activists made a giant 3, Palestinians a huge 5, and Jordanians a 0. In South Africa, climbers with banners dangled beneath the cable cars on Table Mountain. In Canada, thousands thronged Parliament Hill in Ottawa, 350.org reported.

"People in almost all the nations of the earth are involved ," said 350.org honorary spokesman Desmond Tutu, the South African Anglican archbishop and Nobel Laureate. "It's the same kind of coalition that helped make the word apartheid known around the world."

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Buena Vista, Colorado

Photo courtesy of 350.org

The International Day of Climate Action is the second key moment in the Tck Tck Tck campaign on the road to the next UN climate change meeting in Copenhagen this December, 350.0rg said. "Tck Tck Tck is an unprecedented global alliance of civil society organizations, trade unions, faith groups, and millions of individuals all calling for a fair, ambitious, and binding climate change agreement.

"The Day of Action is a part of an effort to build the world's biggest mandate for bold climate action."

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Children, young people and elders, all of them Totonacas, an ancient native tribe from the northern region of the State of Veracruz in Mexico, gathered to create a  350. "We all sang and danced to make it happen, to reach a better world for all," said the submitters of the image.

Photo courtesy of 350.org

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Istanbul, Turkey

Photo courtesy of 350.org

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Members of Pasumai Thaayagam (Green Motherland) in Chennai, India form a human chain for a fair and just climate change treaty as part of the 350.org International Day of Climate Action, October 24.

Photo by R. Arul/courtesy of 350.org

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Lantern walkers in Sydney, Australia

Photo by Peter Solness/courtesy of 350.org

 

By James G. Robertson, National Geographic Digital Media

Large algae blooms could have been a major contributing factor to the last five mass extinctions and smaller die-offs throughout history, researchers at Clemson University announced yesterday, challenging the theories that a major cataclysmic event, like an asteroid strike, alone caused the extinctions.

Today, a change in sediment or water temperature can cause large algae blooms, which can remove oxygen from the water and create toxins that suffocate fish and poison other organisms. The toxins created by some types of algae can creep into groundwater and poison plants, too, which causes problems up the food chain.

The researchers found evidence of spikes in fossilized algae, called stromatolites, about the same time the mass extinctions occurred, leading them to believe that algae had a role in disrupting the food chain by killing off fish or poisoning herbivorous creatures. The blooms could have been caused by fallout from volcanoes or asteroid collisions, or simply from climate change.

While it is a theory about the past, the theory could have an impact on the future as well.

"This hypothesis gives us cause for concern and underscores the importance of careful and strategic monitoring as we move into an era of global climate change," wrote James W. Castle and John H. Rodgers, the authors of the study that was presented at the 2009 meeting of the Geological Society of America.

There is evidence that toxic algae has been creeping northward due to climate change, says Castle, potentially causing problems for wildlife and humans as the planet gets warmer.

You can read more about developments in the asteroid extinction theory at National Geographic News.


 

 

 

Six hundred experts from seventy countries concluding a biodiversity conference today in Cape Town, South Africa, described preliminary research revealing "jaw-dropping" dollar values of the ecosystem services of forests and coral reefs, including food, pollution treatment, and climate regulation.

"Undertaken to help societies make better-informed choices, the economic research shows a single hectare [2.47 acres] of coral reef, for example, provides annual services to humans valued at U.S.$130,000 on average, rising to as much as $1.2 million," said a statement released by Diversitas, a Paris-based international partnership of inter-governmental and non-governmental organizations formed to promote and facilitate scientific research on biodiversity. Diversitas convened the conference.

coral-picture-5.jpg

NGS photo by Bates Littlehales

The research described in Cape Town today provides insights into the worth of ecosystems in human economic terms, says economist Pavan Sukhdev of the United Nations Environment Programme, head of a Cambridge, England-based project called The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB).

 

coral-picture-4.jpgBased on analysis of more than 80 coral reef valuation studies, TEEB calculated the worth of services per hectare of coral reef breaks down as follows: 

  • Food, raw materials, ornamental resources: average $1,100 (up to $6,000);
  • Climate regulation, moderation of extreme events, waste treatment / water purification, biological control: average $26,000 (up to $35,000);
  • Cultural services (eg. recreation / tourism): average $88,700 (up to $1.1 million)
  • Maintenance of genetic diversity: average $13,500 (up to $57,000)

Taken together, coral reef services worldwide have an average annual value estimated at $172 billion, Sukhdev said.

NGS photo by Paul Zahl

Sukhdev noted growing scientific agreement that coral reefs are unlikely to survive if atmospheric carbon dioxide levels exceed 350 parts per million. Negotiators of a new climate change deal in Copenhagen in December, however, "would be proud" to achieve an agreement that limits atmospheric carbon to 450 parts per million, he said, calling that "a death sentence on the world's coral reefs."

Halving deforestation worth trillions

"Halving the destruction of tropical forests, meanwhile, would allow them to continue absorbing roughly 4.8 gigatonnes of carbon per year, slow the rise of atmospheric carbon levels and forestall anticipated climate change damage, Diversitas said in its statement. "Halving deforestation has a net present value estimated at U.S.$3.7 trillion, according to research."

The economic choice of turning such forests into timber or clearing them to make way for agriculture is "not very clever," Sukhdev said.

"Stopping deforestation offers an excellent cost-benefit ratio. "Investment in protected areas holds exceptional high returns," he said.

"Investing $45 billion could secure nature-based services worth some $4.5 to 5.2 trillion annually."

Previous studies have shown that investing $45 billion "could secure nature-based services worth some $4.5 to 5.2 trillion annually," Diversitas added. "Among the specific examples cited: planting mangroves along a coastline in Vietnam cost $1.1 million but saved $7.3 million annually in dyke maintenance."

Diversitas released these examples of a rate of return on investments in ecosystem restoration:

  • Coral reefs: 7%, (with a cost-benefit ratio of 2.8);
  • Rivers: 27%, (cost-benefit ratio 15.5);
  • Tropical forests: 50% (cost-benefit ratio 37.3);
  • Mangroves: 40%, (cost-benefit ratio 26.4);
  • Grasslands: 79%, (cost-benefit ratio 75.1).

 

Cape Town "Declaration" 

Scientists attending the conference issued a concluding statement confirming stating that "as we approach the 2010 Year of Biodiversity ... the fabric out of which the Earth system is woven is unravelling at an accelerating rate."

"At the same time, we are discovering ever more about biodiversity and the benefits it provides to people. It is clear that biodiversity loss erodes the integrity of ecosystems and their capacity to adapt in a changing world. It represents a serious risk to human wellbeing and a squandering of current assets and future opportunities.

"The biodiversity scientists gathered here commit themselves to finding practical solutions to this problem. They will do so by: increasing shared knowledge of biodiversity and its functions; helping to develop systems for monitoring the biodiversity of the planet; and being responsive to the knowledge needs of society with clear communication of findings.

"The proposed mechanism for the ongoing evaluation and communication of scientific evidence on these issues is an Intergovernmental Panel on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). We call on governments and non-governmental organisations to join us in establishing IPBES as soon as possible. We urge policy-makers to act swiftly and effectively on the already-established and future findings relating to ways of limiting further biodiversity loss and restoring ecosystem services."

"Meeting current and future human needs must make adequate provision for the complex web of life of which people are an integral part. People everywhere must give effect to their shared desire for a biologically-rich and productive planet through their individual decisions and political voices."

By James G. Robertson, National Geographic Digital Media

A story from the BBC caught our attention yesterday about a creative way the president of the Republic of Maldives, a small island country in the Indian Ocean, and his cabinet are trying to draw attention to the issue of climate change.

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Aerial photo of Male Atoll, Republic of Maldives.  NG Photo by James L. Stanfield.

The president and his cabinet will be holding a meeting, a press conference and will be signing a document calling on the world to take climate change seriously--all under water.

Because most of the island country lies about a meter (3.2 feet) above sea level, according to the BBC, the country is at risk of disappearing with even a minor change in sea level.

According to a UN Web site, sea levels are predicted to increase 18-58 centimeters (7-22.8 inches) by the end of the century. 

The dive is planned for October 17, ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December. 

Dragonflies and damselflies are ancient insects that have been around since the age of the dinosaurs. But now the aerial predators may be in trouble as climate change and human development are drying up the freshwater habitat they need to survive.

One in five Mediterranean dragonflies and damselflies is threatened with extinction because of Increasing scarcity of freshwater in the region, the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) said today.

Climate change and habitat degradation, due to the way land is managed, are also affecting the insects, says a report by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species.

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Photo of Large White-faced Darter (Leucorrhinia pectoralis) by Fabio Pupin/IUCN

Dragonflies and damselflies belong to the order of insects called Odonata. They have been around in one form or another since the Jurassic era, well more than a hundred million years ago. Giant specimens with wingspans of more than two feet have been found in the fossil record. About 6,500 species survive today.

Aerial predators that hunt by sight, dragonflies and damselflies generally are found at or near fresh water. The larvae are predatory, aquatic and occur in all manner of inland waters, according to the Web of Life.

Common-Pond-Damsel--(Ceriagrion-glabrum)-photo.jpgCommon Pond Damsel  (Ceriagrion glabrum) photo by Elisa Riservato/IUCN

The Red List assessment of 163 Mediterranean dragonflies and damselflies shows five are Critically Endangered, 13 are Endangered, another 13 are Vulnerable, 27 are Near Threatened, 96 are Least Concern and six are Data Deficient, meaning there is not enough information to classify them, but they might also be threatened.

"It is likely things will only get worse for these unique species as climate change and increased water demand take their toll," says Jean Pierre Boudot, member of the IUCN Dragonfly Specialist Group and co-author of the report. "Lower levels of precipitation and drought will lead to degradation of the habitats where the majority of dragonflies and damselflies live."

Glittering-Demoiselle-(Calopteryx-exul)-photo.jpgPhoto of Glittering Demoiselle (Calopteryx exul) by Jean-Pierre Boudot/IUCN

Four species are already listed as Extinct in the Mediterranean, including the Little Whisp (Agriocnemis exilis), the Common Pond Damsel (Ceriagrion glabrum), the Phantom Flutterer (Rhyothemis semihyalina) and the Darting Cruiser (Phyllomacromia africana).

"Dragonflies are generally known for being good indicators of water quality," IUCN says in a statement about the report. "Major threats for 67 percent of these Mediterranean species are habitat degradation and pollution. The Spotted Darter (Sympetrum depressiusculum), which used to be common in the Mediterranean, is now listed as Vulnerable and is declining due to the intensification of agricultural practices in rice fields."

Banded-Darter-(Sympetrum-pedemontanum)--photo.jpgBanded Darter (Sympetrum pedemontanum) photo by Fabio Pupin/IUCN

Fourteen percent of these insect species can be found only in Mediterranean freshwater ecosystems, some of the richest and most threatened habitats, among which nine have been assessed as Endangered or Vulnerable. According to the report, the highest numbers of endemic dragonflies are present in the South and West of the Mediterranean, with the Maghreb and the Levant areas being regional hotspots of endemism.

dragonfly-report-cover.jpgThe majority of the threatened species are concentrated in the Levant, southern Turkey and Balkans, northeast Algeria and northern Tunisia.

"The Glittering Demoiselle (Calopteryx exul), for example, is listed as Endangered and is in decline. It inhabits the aquatic habitats of the Maghreb, whose ecosystems are under pressure due to water-harnessing for human use, water pollution, irrigation and drought," IUCN says.

"Long-term coordinated actions are needed at regional, national and international level, and the results of this report highlight the responsibility that Mediterranean countries have to protect the global populations.

"Though some species are already receiving some conservation attention thanks to international laws, such as the Ornate Bluet (Coenagrion ornatum) which is included in the European Habitat Directive, others are not protected at all, despite their high risk of extinction."

Banded-Demoiselle-(Calopteryx-splendens)-photo.jpgBanded Demoiselle (Calopteryx splendens) photo by Jean-Pierre Boudot/IUCN

"The selection and protection of key sites are essential to ensure the survival of these species," says IUCN's Annabelle Cuttelod, co-author of the report. "Their ecological requirements need to be taken into account in the planning and management of water use, especially for agriculture purposes or infrastructure development. IUCN Red List data can inform both processes."

In addition to the Mediterranean odonata assessment, 1,912 species of amphibians, birds, cartilaginous fishes, endemic freshwater fishes, crabs and crayfish, mammals, and reptiles have been assessed to date in the Mediterranean region. About 19 percent of these species are threatened with extinction: 5 percent Critically Endangered, 7 percent Endangered and 7 percent Vulnerable, IUCN says.

Spotted-Darter-(Sympetrum-depressiusculum)-photo.jpgSpotted Darter (Sympetrum depressiusculum) photo by Jean-Pierre Boudot/IUCN.

The assessment was carried out with the support of relevant scientists from the countries bordering the Mediterranean Basin in collaboration with the IUCN Dragonfly Specialist Group, to which they contributed with their expertise to gather the data, and to assess the conservation status that would be the basis for future conservation action.

Beautiful-Demoiselle-(Calopteryx-virgo-meridionalis)-photo.jpgBeautiful Demoiselle (Calopteryx virgo meridionalis) photo by Jean Pierre Boudot/IUCN

This project was funded by the European Commission, the Mava Foundation and the Spanish Agency for International Cooperation and Development (AECID).

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Ornate Bluet (Coenagrion ornatum) photo by Jean-Pierre Boudot/IUCN

 

You might also like:

dragonflies-mating-picture-thumb.jpgDragonfly Mating Game (National Geographic Magazine)
From a distance, dragonfly rituals of courtship and sex look harmless, even romantic. But a close look at their mating game reveals a harsher tale of sexual harassment and conflict
.

Let the clean economy begin!

With this rallying cry, the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Climate Savers program has been joined by National Geographic and a number of large corporations committed to making substantial reductions in their emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), a greenhouse gas that is accelerating the warming of the Earth's climate.

National Geographic will work with WWF to reduce the Society's CO2 emissions from operations by 80 percent by the end of 2010 and to reduce CO2 emissions from its magazine paper and printing materials supply chain by 10 percent by 2015. The emissions reductions are based on a 2005 baseline.

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NGS photo of National Geographic headquarters in Washington, D.C. by Claude F. Petrone

National Geographic is one of 22 participants, including HP, Nike, The Coca-Cola Company, IBM, and Johnson & Johnson, in WWF's Climate Savers program.

"Collectively, WWF's Climate Savers partners will reduce emissions by an estimated 50 million tons by 2010, an amount equivalent to the annual emissions of Switzerland," WWF said in a statement announcing National Geographic's participation in the program.

The commitment by National Geographic and the others comes on the heels of the United Nations Summit on Climate Change in New York and at the start of the G-20 Summit in Pittsburgh, WWF added.

"National Geographic's commitment to further reduce emissions could not be more timely or relevant," said Keya Chatterjee, acting director of WWF's climate program. "More than 100 world leaders gathered at the UN summit...to show they are committed to building a strong climate agreement. Leaders representing 85 percent of the world's economy [met at the] G-20 summit to foster a global economic recovery. National Geographic understands that emissions reductions and strong economic performance go hand in hand."

"Conservation has been at the core of National Geographic throughout our 121-year-history."

"Conservation has been at the core of National Geographic throughout our 121-year-history. We're delighted to be joining other like-minded organizations with strong climate action plans," said Ted Prince, National Geographic's executive vice president of Global Media. "Investing in energy efficiency and clean energy technology is a highly effective way to grow our business while protecting the planet from catastrophic climate change."

National Geographic is the first media organization to join WWF's Climate Savers program, according to WWF. "As such, it will help communicate the message of WWF's 'Let the Clean Economy Begin' campaign. The campaign calls on world leaders to find a solution to climate change. It also demonstrates, using results from WWF's partners, that it is possible to grow a business while reducing its CO2 emissions."

Overall, partners in the program say these efforts are resulting in greater operational efficiency and significant cost reductions, WWF said.

The Climate Savers program is a collaboration between some of the world's foremost corporations and WWF to show leadership in reducing emissions and heading off catastrophic climate change. By participating in Climate Savers, companies work with WWF to develop a climate action plan that includes absolute emission reductions and steps to meet their goals. Independent technical experts monitor and verify compliance.

Swapping field clothes for a suit and tie, conservation biologist Stuart Pimm attended a United Nations event last week on forests and climate change. He was among world leaders and distinguished thinkers and activists invited to publicly express their commitment and support for the role of forests as an option to mitigate the emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

The forest event followed the Summit on Climate Change, convened at the UN a day earlier "to mobilize political will and strengthen momentum for a fair, effective, and ambitious climate deal" in Copenhagen this December.

Officials from almost every country will gather in Copenhagen to try to agree a new climate treaty as a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, the first phase of which expires in 2012. The conference, also known as COP15, is widely regarded as a critical opportunity for humanity to try to get a grip on the problem of climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.

REDD-meeting-picture.jpgThe meeting on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (REDD) convened by Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon at the United Nations, New York.

Photo courtesy United Nations

By Stuart L. Pimm
Special Contributor to NatGeo News Watch

United Nations, New York--September 23, 2009, 5 a.m. Another morning when the alarm goes off while it's still very dark. When I dress, it's not my boots and field khakis that I put on, but a white shirt, fumbling at this early hour with the cufflinks, and a charcoal grey suit.

The flight to New York is just over an hour. Then a taxi. It can't get me very close to my destination. First, I see what must be every policeman in the city, then the traffic slows to a crawl, then a standstill, and I continue my journey on foot.

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Different kind of jungle

This morning I'm off to a different kind of "jungle" and it requires different field clothes. The United Nations General Assembly is in session and I have an invitation to watch a "high level event."

What happens here may decide whether the world's forests, their biodiversity, and their indigenous peoples, have a future.

The last few blocks have the feel of a street fair. Lots of noisy people waving posters, shouting slogans--and one, carrying a placard reading simply "Indict him!", nearly knocks me over.

I wonder who the "him" is, thinking there might be 192 national leaders to choose from, then remember that some would be "her," so that narrows the field just a bit.

Finally, I reach the right street corner, see someone holding a small sign "REDD," and, in short order, I am whisked through security into the relative tranquility of the UN building.

REDD is for "Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation." It is a UN program that seeks to generate income for countries that provide sustainable management of forests while also contributing to important reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

There's a lot of science involved and the world's forests are at stake. I worry: will this meeting of the world's top politicians--its presidents and prime ministers--have got the message?

Forest-burning-in-southern-Venezuela-photo.jpgBurning tropical forests, like this in southern Venezuela, contribute one fifth of all the greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere due to human activity--more that all the emissions from Europe.

Photo by Stuart L. Pimm

The United Nations Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, introduces the proceedings. He recognizes the commitment to the meeting--more than 85 governments are represented in the room, 18 of them by their heads of state.

Then he nails the key points:

  • Deforestation causes 20 percent of the emissions of global greenhouse gases.
  • Hundreds of million of mostly poor people live in forests and depend on the ecosystem services they provide.
  • Forests harbor the greatest share of the planet's biodiversity.

Some background: A total of 183 countries have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol--an agreement to reduce the greenhouse gases that are disrupting the planet.

People often think that this is entirely a problem for industrial nations, such as the U.S., European countries, Japan, and so on. If so, the list of top emitters would surprise: after China and the U.S., come Brazil and Indonesia.

Brazil and Indonesia get to that position because of their high rates of deforestation.

Guyana-forests-picture.jpgGuyana in South America still has most of its forests and, with the areas of adjacent Venezuela (seen here) and northern Brazil constituting one of the largest remaining blocks of tropical forest.

Photo by Stuart L. Pimm

Under the Kyoto Protocol, developing countries cannot receive credit for the benefits their forests provide as the major stores of global carbon. REDD aims to change that.

Brazil's neighbor, Guyana, still has most of its forests. Its president, Bharrat Jagdeo, gave the event's most forceful presentation. "We all profess to know how important forests are," he started, then asked why REDD hadn't been given the attention of other solutions. "We need to correct that this afternoon."

Certainly, there were technical problems, he noted, but there are also technical problems with alternatives such as employing renewable energy. He felt that countries were focusing too much on REDD's difficulties. "This is the lowest-cost [greenhouse gas] abatement solution," he said. 

Indeed, studies done by the Union of Concerned Scientists show that about U.S. $25 billion in forest conservation would prevent a billion tons of carbon going into the atmosphere.

Stopping deforestation is a bargain compared to other solutions.

Amazon-sunrise-picture.jpgAmazon sunrise: tropical forests are home to 70 percent of the planet's biodiversity.

Photo by Stuart L. Pimm 

From the point of view of the developed world, Sweden's prime minister, Fredrik Reinfeldt, spoke on behalf of the European Union. He too started with the importance of forests--home to "70 percent of the world's biodiversity."

Deforestation was running at "13 million hectares [50,000 square miles] per year between 2000 and 2005," Reinfeldt said. Unless the world's nations could reduce that by half by 2020, there would be no way to keep the planet from warming at least two degrees, he warned.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton did not attend. Neither did British Prime Minister Gordon Brown. But a British official read Brown's statement. Yes, public funding was vital, the British agreed, but so too was the private sector who could use carbon markets to offset their emissions. (Companies could compensate for their carbon emissions by investing in carbon-trapping opportunities like forests.) 

With colleagues, I have spent a career documenting forest-loss and the species extinctions it causes. Would this science get onto the political agenda? I need not have worried. It has.

But would the broad international agreements on the science be enough to effect real change?

"The core point is will there be adequate funds to do this?"

While president Jagdeo applauded Norway's financial commitments and Brazil's efforts to reduce deforestation, his main point was emphatic: "the core point is will there be adequate funds to do this?" Can enough money be raised through carbin markets and other global sources to make forest conservaton sustainable?

I knew from previous events, drinks and canapés would follow. From the windowless meeting chamber, we trouped into a lounge with an impressive view overlooking the river.

I wasn't just there for the snacks, for there were short talks by two women who I have long admired, but never met.

Wangari Maathai is a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, rewarded for her work in environmental conservation, women's rights and--so relevant to the day's events--planting trees.

Victoria Tauli-Corpuz chairs the UN Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues. She played a central role is getting the UN to adopt the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.

Waorani-picture-4.jpg

Waorani-(Moi)-picture-3.jpg Waorani-child-photo-2.jpgForests are home to many indigenous groups, some still living in voluntary isolation.  Others, such as these Waorani in Ecuador, were born as nomads in the forest and still live traditional lives.

Photos by Stuart L. Pimm

Yes, REDD is about billions of tons of carbon. And about millions of species. Maathai and Tauli-Corpuz understood that. But their unique and powerful message is that REDD is about people--whose lives and whose homes are destroyed when we clear the world's forests.

 

stuart-pimm-bio-picture.jpgProfessor Stuart L. Pimm is a conservation biologist at Duke University, North Carolina. A former member of the National Geographic Committee for Research and Exploration, Pimm is the author of dozens of books and research papers, including the book "The World According to Pimm: A Scientist Audits the Earth."

 

 

Read earlier blog posts by Stuart Pimm>>

 

A sturdy condom could be humankind's best weapon to prevent a climate calamity, according to a cost-benefit analysis by British economists.

Contraception is almost five times cheaper than conventional green technologies as a means of combating climate change, the London School of Economics concluded after comparing all the alternatives to reducing future emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere.

The simplest solution, in other words, is to cap human population growth.

The study looks only at the economic alternatives. The organizers of the research are fully aware of the controversial nature of the suggestion that the human population growth rate needs to be slowed, which is perhaps why they point out that that every additional person, "especially each rich person" in developed countries, reduces everyone's share of the planet's dwindling resources even further.

earth-at-night-picture.jpg
Distribution of resource-rich populations, as suggested by electricity consumption at night.

Image courtesy NASA

Each U.S. $7 spent on basic family planning over the next four decades would reduce global CO2 emissions by more than a tonne (2,200 pounds), said the Optimum Population Trust (OPT), a British think tank concerned with the impact of population growth on the environment. OPT commissioned the research from the London School of Economics.

"To achieve the same result with low-carbon technologies would cost a minimum of $32," OPT said in a statement."The UN estimates that 40 per cent of all pregnancies worldwide are unintended."

Fewer Emitters, Lower Emissions, Less Cost 

The report, "Fewer Emitters, Lower Emissions, Less Cost," concludes that "considered purely as a method of reducing future CO2 emissions," family planning is more cost-effective than leading low-carbon technologies. It says family planning should be seen as one of the primary methods of emissions reduction.

Meeting basic family planning needs along the lines suggested would save more than billion tons of CO2 between now and 2050--equivalent to nearly six times the annual emissions of the U.S. and almost 60 times the UK's annual total, OPT said.

"It's always been obvious that total emissions depend on the number of emitters as well as their individual emissions--the carbon tonnage can't shoot down, as we want, while the population keeps shooting up."

Roger Martin, chair of OPT, said the findings vindicated OPT's stance that population growth must be included in the climate change debate. "It's always been obvious that total emissions depend on the number of emitters as well as their individual emissions--the carbon tonnage can't shoot down, as we want, while the population keeps shooting up," Martin said.

"The taboo on mentioning this fact has made the whole climate change debate so far somewhat unreal. Stabilizing population levels has always been essential ecologically, and this study shows it's economically sensible too.

"The population issue must now be added into the negotiations for the Copenhagen climate change summit in December.

"This part of the solution is so easy, and so cheap, and would bring so many other social and economic benefits, from health and education to the empowerment of women. It would also ease all the other environmental problems we face--the rapid shrinkage of soil, fresh water, forests, fisheries, wildlife and oil reserves and the looming food crisis."

All of these problems would be easier to solve with fewer people, and ultimately impossible to solve with ever more, Martin added.

"Meanwhile each additional person, especially each rich person in the OECD countries, reduces everyone's share of the planet's dwindling resources even faster.

"Non-coercive population policies are urgently needed in all countries. The taboo on discussing this is no longer defensible."

contraception-prevalence-map.jpgIn this UN map of world contraceptive use in 2007, the scale ranges from pale yellow (less than 20 percent) to dark blue (75 percent or more).

The London School of Economics study, based on the principle that "fewer people will emit fewer tonnes of carbon dioxide," models the consequences of meeting all "unmet need" for family planning, defined as the number of women who wish to delay or terminate childbearing but who are not using contraception, OPT said.

"One recent estimate put this figure at 200 million. UN data suggest that meeting unmet need for family planning would reduce unintended births by 72 per cent, reducing projected world population in 2050 by half a billion to 8.64 billion. Between 2010 and 2050 12 billion fewer "people-years" would be lived - 326 billion against 338 billion under current projections."

The 34 gigatonnes of CO2 saved in this way would cost $220 billion--roughly $7 a tonne. However, the same CO2 saving would cost over $1 trillion if low-carbon technologies were used, OPT said. "The $7 cost of abating a tonne of CO2 using family planning compares with $24 for wind power, $51 for solar, $57-83 for coal plants with carbon capture and storage, $92 for plug-in hybrid vehicles and $131 for electric vehicles."

The study may understate the CO2 savings available because the estimates of unmet need are based on married women alone, yet some studies suggest up to 40 per cent of young unmarried women have had unwanted pregnancies, OPT added.

Said Martin, "The potential for tackling climate change by addressing population growth through better family planning, alongside the conventional approach, is clearly enormous and we shall be urging all those involved in the Copenhagen process to take it fully on board."

What do you think about this? Should the leaders meeting in Copenhagen have a serious discussion about addressing population growth through better family planning? 

Recent flooding in parts of Turkey has underscored the need to focus on ecologically sound flood management practices to shield urban areas from extreme weather events, particularly those caused by climate change, WWF-Turkey said today.

"The presence of deadly floods right in the heart of Istanbul first of all points at the insufficient infrastructure of the city," said Filiz Demirayak, the CEO of WWF-Turkey. "Unregulated urban development and infrastructure have become barriers preventing rain water to reach the sea via its natural path."

Turkey's Thracian region and the capital Istanbul this week received a month's worth of rainfall during two days--or four times the total amount of average precipitation for this entire month--causing massive flooding that led to the death of 30 people and widespread damage estimated at U.S.$90 million dollars, WWF said in a statement.

The floods follow flash floods in July that killed at least six people in the north-eastern province of Artvin, and inundated more than 100 homes and businesses in the Black Sea province of Giresun.

Flooding occurred mostly because natural irrigation channels had been damaged and unplanned developments blocked the rain water from dissipating into the sea, WWF said.

"The insufficiency of water absorbing green areas and forests in the heart of the city is another factor that blocks water in the midst of concrete," Demirayak said.

"In the periphery of Istanbul and Tekirdağ river beds have been narrowed down, filled up by residential and industrial areas, thus blocking natural flood control mechanisms. The local municipalities and the government need to resolve the infrastructural problems of the city and prepare climate adaptation plan immediately."

Weather-related problems such as floods could worsen because of climate change unless ecological flood prevention techniques are adopted, WWF warned. "These consist of river delta conservation and forest conservation. In addition, urban settlements along river beds must be closely monitored.

"Ecological flood management is the safest and most cost-effective solution," Demirayak said. "If future damage is to be prevented, the climate change adaptation process has to start immediately.

"The current infrastructure in Turkey cannot handle the consequences of climate change. WWF-Turkey calls upon the government and the municipalities to take immediate action for adaptation to climate change."

Over the last ten years in Australia, scientists have unearthed an average of at least two new species a week, WWF said in a recent report.

"The extent of Australia's rich biodiversity is astounding, to the point where science is regularly being used to describe new species," Michael Roache of WWF-Australia said.

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Photograph courtesy Ross Knowles, WWF-Australia

Tragically, many of the newfound species may already be heading for extinction. At least 1,300 species are thought to be endangered, according to the report released by WWF to mark Australia's National Threatened Species Day on September 7.

Take the the carbine barred frog (pictured above), for example. It lives only in cool, high-elevation rain forests of the Carbine Tablelands, a region in northern Australia that is vulnerable to the effects of global warming, conservationists say.

"The frog--among 13 new amphibians found in the country in the past decade--may lose its habitat by 2050, due to an intense temperature rise," National Geographic News reported yesterday.

Read more about the the 1,300 new plant and animal species found in Australia since 1999, and see a small gallery of pictures:

NEW SPECIES PICTURES: "Fast Talking" Frog, Snubfin Dolphin Found >>

The future of the Earth could rest on potentially dangerous and unproven geoengineering technologies unless emissions of carbon dioxide can be greatly reduced, the Royal Society, the UK's national academy of science, said today.

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Photo courtesy NASA

"Unless future efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are much more successful than they have been so far, additional action in the form of geoengineering will be necessary if we are to cool the planet," the Royal Society says in a report, "Geoengineering the Climate: Science, Governance and Uncertainty."

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Geoengineering technologies were "very likely to be technically possible and some were considered to be potentially useful to augment the continuing efforts to mitigate climate change by reducing emissions," the report says.However, the report also identifies major uncertainties regarding their effectiveness, costs and environmental impacts.

"Geoengineering and its consequences are the price we may have to pay for failure to act on climate change."

"It is an unpalatable truth that unless we can succeed in greatly reducing CO2 emissions we are headed for a very uncomfortable and challenging climate future, and geoengineering will be the only option left to limit further temperature increases," says Professor John Shepherd, who chaired the geoengineering study.

"Our research found that some geoengineering techniques could have serious unintended and detrimental effects on many people and ecosystems--yet we are still failing to take the only action that will prevent us from having to rely on them.

"Geoengineering and its consequences are the price we may have to pay for failure to act on climate change."

Carbon Dioxide Removal vs. Solar Radiation Management

The report assesses the two main kinds of geoengineering techniques--Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) and Solar Radiation Management (SRM).

"CDR techniques address the root of the problem--rising CO2--and so have fewer uncertainties and risks, as they work to return the Earth to a more normal state," the Royal Society says in a news release about the report. "They are therefore considered preferable to SRM techniques, but none has yet been demonstrated to be effective at an affordable cost, with acceptable environmental impacts, and they only work to reduce temperatures over very long timescales.

"SRM techniques act by reflecting the sun's energy away from Earth, meaning they lower temperatures rapidly, but do not affect CO2 levels.

"They therefore fail to address the wider effects of rising CO2, such as ocean acidification, and would need to be deployed for a very long time.

"Although they are relatively cheap to deploy, there are considerable uncertainties about their regional consequences, and they only reduce some, but not all, of the effects of climate change, while possibly creating other problems."

The report concludes that SRM techniques could be useful if a threshold is reached where action to reduce temperatures must be taken rapidly, but that they are not an alternative to emissions reductions or CDR techniques.

Plan B: No Magic Bullet

"None of the geoengineering technologies so far suggested is a magic bullet, and all have risks and uncertainties associated with them," Professor Shepherd said,

"It is essential that we strive to cut emissions now, but we must also face the very real possibility that we will fail. If Plan B is to be an option in the future, considerable research and development of the different methods, their environmental impacts and governance issues must be undertaken now.

"Used irresponsibly or without regard for possible side effects, geoengineering could have catastrophic consequences similar to those of climate change itself."

"Used irresponsibly or without regard for possible side effects, geoengineering could have catastrophic consequences similar to those of climate change itself. We must ensure that a governance framework is in place to prevent this."

Of the CDR techniques assessed, the Royal Society said, the following were considered to have most useful potential:

  • CO2 capture from ambient air: This would be the preferred method of geoengineering, as it effectively reverses the cause of climate change. At this stage no cost-effective methods have yet been demonstrated and much more research and development is needed.
  • Enhanced weathering: This technique, which utilizes naturally occurring reactions of CO2 from the air with rocks and minerals, was identified as a prospective longer-term option. "However more research is needed to find cost-effective methods and to understand the wider environmental implications."
  • Land use and afforestation: The report found that land use management could and should play a small but significant role in reducing the growth of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However the scope for applying this technique would be limited by land use conflicts, and all the competing demands for land must be considered when assessing the potential for afforestation and reforestation.

Should temperatures rise to such a level where more rapid action needs to be taken, the Royal Society report says, the following SRM techniques are considered to have most potential:

  • Stratospheric aerosols: These were found to be feasible, and previous volcanic eruptions have effectively provided short-term preliminary case studies of the potential effectiveness of this method. "The cost was assessed as likely to be relatively low and the timescale of action short. However, there are some serious questions over adverse effects, particularly depletion of stratospheric ozone."
  • Space-based methods: These were considered to be a potential SRM technique for long-term use, if the major problems of implementation and maintenance could be solved. At present the techniques remain prohibitively expensive, complex and would be slow to implement.
  • Cloud albedo approaches (eg. cloud ships): The effects would be localised and the impacts on regional weather patterns and ocean currents are of considerable concern but are not well understood. The feasibility and effectiveness of the technique is uncertain. A great deal more research would be needed before this technique could be seriously considered.

The following techniques were considered to have lower potential:

  • Biochar (CDR technique): The report identified significant doubts relating to the potential scope, effectiveness and safety of this technique and recommended that substantial research would be required before it could be considered for eligibility for UN carbon credits.
  • Ocean fertiliization (CDR technique): The report found that this technique had not been proved to be effective and had high potential for unintended and undesirable ecological side effects.
  • Surface albedo approaches (SRM technique, including white roof methods, reflective crops and desert reflectors): These were found to be ineffective, expensive and, in some cases, likely to have serious impacts on local and regional weather patterns.
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More than a mile of ice core was pulled from the Greenland ice sheet by scientists this summer, setting a new record for single-season deep ice-core drilling.

The researchers, from 14 countries and led by the University of Copenhagen, are on a quest to recover ice formed 120,000 years ago, the last time our planet was in a period of warm climate such as the one many scientists think we are now entering.

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Pushing an ice core out of the drill.

Photo courtesy NEEM ice core drilling project

"Evidence from ancient ice cores tell us that when greenhouse gases increase in the atmosphere, the climate warms," says University of Colorado at Boulder Professor Jim White, who is leading the U.S. research contingent. "And when the climate warms, ice sheets melt and sea levels rise.

"If we see comparable rises in sea level in the future like we have seen in the ice-core record, we can pretty much say good-bye to American coastal cities like Miami, Houston, Norfolk, New Orleans and Oakland."

"If we see comparable rises in sea level in the future like we have seen in the ice-core record, we can pretty much say good-bye to American coastal cities like Miami, Houston, Norfolk, New Orleans and Oakland."

This year's drilling operation reached a depth of 1,758 meters (5,767 feet) in early August, where ice layers date to 38,500 years ago during cold glacial period preceding the present interglacial, or warm period.

"The team hopes to hit bedrock at 2,545 meters (8,350 feet) at the end of next summer, reaching ice deposited during warm Eemian period that lasted from roughly 130,000 to 120,000 years ago before the planet began to cool and ice up once again," says a statement about the project released by the National Science Foundation yesterday.

The goal of the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) project is to retrieve ice from the the Eemian Period.

Annual ice layers formed over millennia in Greenland by compressed snow reveal information on past temperatures and precipitation levels and the contents of ancient atmospheres, said White, who directs CU-Boulder's Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research. "Ice cores exhumed during previous drilling efforts have revealed abrupt temperature spikes of more than 20 degrees Fahrenheit in just 50 years in the Northern Hemisphere."

The period was warmer than today, with less ice in Greenland. That led to 15-foot (5-meter) higher sea levels than present--conditions similar to those Earth faces as it warms in the coming century and beyond, White says.

Greenland-ice-sheet-picture.jpgThis MODIS Terra image, acquired August 23, 2006, shows the southern portion of Greenland. The Greenlandic ice cap covers about 80 percent of the island's surface. Photo courtesy NASA

While three previous Greenland ice cores drilled in the past 20 years covered the last ice age and the period of warming to the present, the deeper ice layers representing the warm Eemian, and the period of transition to the ice age were compressed and folded, making them difficult to interpret, he says.

"Radar measurements through the ice sheet from above the NEEM site have indicated the Eemian ice layers below are thicker, more intact and likely contain more accurate, specific information.

"Every time we drill a new ice core, we learn a lot more about how Earth's climate functions," White said. "The Eemian period is the best analog we have for future warming on Earth."

Increased warming on Earth has a host of potentially deleterious effects, including changes in ecosystems, wildlife extinctions, the growing spread of disease, potentially catastrophic heat waves and increases in severe weather events, according to scientists.

While ice cores pinpoint abrupt climate change events as Earth has passed in and out of glacial periods, the warming trend during the present interglacial period is caused primarily by human activities like fossil fuel burning, White says.

"What makes this warming trend fundamentally different from past warming events is that this one is driven by human activity and involves human responsibility, morals and ethics."

The NEEM project is led by the University of Copenhagen's Centre of Ice and Climate directed by Professor Dorthe Dahl-Jensen. The U.S. and Denmark are the two leading partners in this project. The U.S. effort is funded by the National Science Foundation's Office of Polar Programs.

The project began in 2008 with the construction of a state of the art facility, including a large dome, the drilling rig for extracting three-inch in-diameter ice cores, drilling trenches, laboratories and living quarters. The official drilling started in June 2009.

The United States is leading the laboratory analysis of atmospheric gases trapped in bubbles within the NEEM ice cores, including greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane.

Other nations involved in the project include the United States Belgium, Canada, China, France, Germany, Iceland, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.

Mangrove forests thrive in the salty tidal zone between ocean and land. They play an immensely important role in stabilizing the coastline against erosion, moderating storm surges, and as a nursery and sanctuary for hundreds of species of fish, birds, and other animals.

It's too bad then that in many parts of the world mangrove forests are disappearing faster than they can be surveyed and appreciated for the life-giving services they provide.

Mangroves in Africa have been particularly impacted by human development and many countries may be in danger of losing these vital shoreline woodlands completely, which could threaten food security and expose coastal communities to natural disasters.

"Impoverished fishermen along the coast of tropical African countries like Mozambique and Madagascar may have only a few more years to eke out a profit from one of their nations' biggest agricultural exports," says NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in a recent news release.

"Within a few decades, they may no longer have a livelihood at all."

"Mangrove forests--essential breeding grounds for fish and shellfish in these countries--are being destroyed by worsening pollution, encroaching real estate development, and deforestation necessary to sustain large-scale commercial shrimp farming."

That's because swampy mangrove forests--essential breeding grounds for fish and shellfish in these countries--are being destroyed by worsening pollution, encroaching real estate development, and deforestation necessary to sustain large-scale commercial shrimp farming, NASA explains.

"The decline of these forests threatens much of Africa's coastal food supply and economy. The destruction of mangroves--one of Earth's richest natural resources - also has implications for everything from climate change to biodiversity to the quality of life on Earth."

But help may be on the way.

Lola Fatoyinbo, an evironmental scientist with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), has helped develop a tool that will help African countries manage their dwindling mangroves.

Growing up in Cotonou, Benin, West Africa, Fatoyinbo passed polluted mangroves daily, NASA says. "Inspired to help save the forests, she began a mission as a graduate student in the United States to gain more insight about African mangroves."

Her studies have brought Fatoyinbo back to Africa, where she has journeyed along the coastlines to test a new satellite technique for measuring the area, height, and biomass of mangrove forests.

"She developed and employed a method that can be used across the continent, overcoming expensive, ad hoc, and inconsistent modes of ground-based measurement," NASA says.

Fatoyinbo's approach recently produced what she believes is the first full assessment of the continent's mangrove forests.

"We've lost more than 50 percent of the world's mangrove forests in a little over half a century; a third of them have disappeared in the last 20 years alone," said Fatoyinbo, whose earlier study of Mozambique's coastal forests laid the groundwork for the continent-wide study.

"Hopefully this technique will offer scientists and officials a method of estimating change in this special type of forest."

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NASA researcher Lola Fatoyinbo (left), seen here in June 2005 on the site where she conducted some of her field measurements, stands among the large branches of a Rhizophora mucronata tree in a mangrove forest on Inhaca Island, Mozambique with one of her research assistants, a student from the University Eduardo Mondlane in Maputo, Mozambique.

Photo courtesy NASA/Temilola Fatoyinbo

Mangroves are the most common ecosystem in coastal areas of the tropics and sub-tropics, NASA says. "The swampy forests are essential--especially in densely-populated developing countries--for rice farming, fishing and aquaculture (freshwater and saltwater farming), timber, and firewood. Some governments also increasingly depend on them for ecotourism."

The large, dense root systems are a natural obstacle that helps protect shorelines against debris and erosion, NASA explains. "Mangroves are often the first line of defense against severe storms, tempering the impact of strong winds and floods."

Mangroves also have a direct link to climate, sequestering carbon from the atmosphere at a rate of about 100 pounds per acre per day--comparable to the per acre intake by tropical rainforests (though rainforests cover more of Earth's surface), NASA adds.

"To my knowledge, this study is the first complete mapping of Africa's mangroves, a comprehensive, historic baseline enabling us to truly begin monitoring the welfare of these forests," said Assaf Anyamba, a University of Maryland expert on vegetation mapping, based at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.

Fatoyinbo's research combines multiple satellite observations of tree height and land cover, mathematical formulas, and ground-truthing data from the field to measure the full expanse and makeup of the coastal forests.

Her measurements yielded three new kinds of maps of mangroves: continental maps of how much land the mangroves cover; a three-dimensional map of the height of forest canopies across the continent; and biomass maps that allow researchers to assess how much carbon the forests store.

Fatoyinbo and colleague Marc Simard of JPL used satellite images from the NASA-built Landsat and a complex software-based color classification system to distinguish areas of coastal forests from other types of forests, urban areas or agricultural fields.

They also integrated data from NASA's Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to create relief maps of the height of the forest canopy.

Finally, they merged the broad radar maps with high-accuracy observations from a light detection and ranging (commonly called lidar) instrument aboard NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) to obtain accurate height estimates.

"Fatoyinbo double-checked the accuracy of her satellite measurements at the ground level in the only way possible: She went to Africa to measure tree heights and trunk diameters in person," NASA says.

Major China-based producers and users of palm oil have committed support for sustainable palm oil, "an important boost for efforts to halt tropical deforestation," WWF reported today.

The public statement, made at the 2nd International Oil and Fats Summit in Beijing on July 9, committed the companies to "support the promotion, procurement and use of sustainable palm oil in China,'"as well as "support the production of sustainable palm oil through any investments in producing countries." (The full text of the statement is at the bottom of this page.)

China is the world's largest importer of palm oil, accounting for one third of all global trade.

"Increasing demand for palm oil, which is used in everything from soap to chocolate bars, is causing considerable damage to fragile rainforest environments, threatening endangered species like tigers, and contributing to global climate change," WWF said.

palm-oil-plantation-picture.jpgConvoluted rows of oil palms march across a plantation in aerial view in Malaysia.

NGS photo by James P. Blair

Palm oil is the most produced vegetable oil in the world, with about 37 million tonnes produced per year around the world, according to WWF.

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Although palm oil is a more sustainable source of vegetable oil than other crops such as soy and rapeseed (canola oil), there are concerns that growing global demand for palm oil for food and biofuel could lead to rapid and poorly managed expansion of oil palm production that could have serious environmental and social consequences.

Palm oil producers and buyers signing the statement of support for sustainable palm oil included Wilmar International, IOI Group, KLK Berhad, Kulim Malaysia Berhad, Asian Agri., Premier Foods and Unilever. Oxfam International, TransAsia Lawyers, and Solidaridad China have also signed the statement.

"Given the massive of volumes of palm oil now being purchased, any move China makes towards using sustainable palm oil will have a big influence on protecting tropical forest resources in South East Asia and other areas," said WWF-China Country Representative Dermot O'Gorman.

palm-oil-picture-2.jpgNGS photo of a vendor selling palm ooil in a market in the Democratic Republic of Congo by W. Robert Moore

WWF and Unilever helped set up the international Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) in 2004, with the aim of establishing global standards for sustainable palm oil production and promoting the use of products containing sustainable palm oil.

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A credible standard that defines sustainable palm oil production has been developed and a system for certification and trade mechanisms in certified sustainable palm oil are in place. However, there have been concerns that consumers worldwide have been slow to support products that use certified palm oil (see news links below).

WWF-China first introduced sustainable palm oil to Chinese companies in 2004, and continues to encourage the country's buyers, producers, and traders to participate in RSPO, the Switzerland-based environmental organization said.

"Sustainable palm oil received a massive boost in November 2008 when Dr. Huo Jiangguo, President of China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Foodstuffs and Native Produce, attended the RSPO annual conference in Indonesia and announced that China supported the drive for more sustainable palm oil products."

"Industry in China acknowledges that sustainability is one of the key criteria of ensuring competence in the global market."

"Industry in China acknowledges that sustainability is one of the key criteria of ensuring competence in the global market," said Bian Zhenghu, vice president of the China Chamber of Commerce during his opening address to the forum. "The Roundtable encourages the entire industry chain to make a move towards sustainability, and also gives Chinese stakeholders a big opportunity to play a significant role achieving the aims of RSPO."

Statement of Support: Promotion of Sustainable Palm Oil in China

This Statement of Support is a non-legally binding expression of support by the signatories on the promotion of sustainable palm oil in China.

Recognizing that
• China is the largest consumer of palm oil which is an important and versatile raw material for both food and non-food products, including biofuel
• It is important that palm oil is produced in a sustainable manner as defined by the Principles and Criteria of the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO)
• Certified sustainable palm oil is now available in commercial quantities

The signatories of this Statement of Support commit themselves to
• Support the promotion, procurement and use of sustainable palm oil in China.
• Support the production of sustainable palm oil through any investments in producing countries that are consistent with the principles for sustainable palm oil production, national laws and China's guidelines for sustainable agriculture.

 

Further reading:

Clearing Land for Biofuels Makes Global Warming Worse (National Geographic News)

Biofuels Could Do More Harm Than Good, UN Report Warns (National Geographic News)

The slippery business of palm oil (The Guardian)

Backers Don't Buy 'Friendly' Palm Oil (Wall Street Journal)

Once a Dream Fuel, Palm Oil May Be an Eco-Nightmare (New York Times)

How the palm oil industry is Cooking the Climate (Greenpeace)

Why Biofuels Are the Rainforest's Worst Enemy (Mother Jones blog)

Slow Sales Of Sustainable Palm Oil Threaten Tropical Forests (WWF press release)

Cruel Oil: How Palm Oil Harms Health, Rain Forests0 and Wildlife (Center for Science in the Public Interest)

 

Two types of mosquitoes capable of transmitting the dengue fever virus are invading Southern and Mid-Atlantic states, creating conditions more favorable for an outbreak, according to a report released today by the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC).

"Areas of the United States previously inhospitable to the disease now support populations of mosquitoes capable of carrying the virus--a problem that may worsen with global warming," NRDC said in a statement.

"An estimated 173.5 million Americans live in counties that now contain one or both of the mosquito species."

Dengue vulnerability in the United States

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Among the social and environmental factors that increase community vulnerability to dengue and other infectious diseases are poor municipal infrastructure and frequent storm damage to homes. Red areas of the map show U.S. counties that have reported the presence of one or both of the mosquito species (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus) that can potentially transmit dengue fever; blue regions highlight the area encompassing most of the positive counties.

Map courtesy NRDC

"Milder winters, hotter, wetter summers and even droughts can bring this insect-borne threat closer to home," said Kim Knowlton, NRDC senior scientist. "Usually relegated to tropical and exotic locales, dengue fever has rarely been an issue in the United States outside of the Texas-Mexico border region. But a changing climate may allow certain species of dengue-spreading-mosquitoes to flourish in nearly half of the United States."

NRDC's report, "Fever Pitch: Mosquito-Borne Threat Spreading in the Americas," finds that mosquitoes capable of transmitting dengue have spread into at least 28 US states, including Texas, Florida, Arizona, and even states as far north as New York and New Hampshire.

"In the United States, the number of physician-reported cases of the disease has more than doubled in the past decade. Nearly 4,000 cases of imported and locally-transmitted dengue were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) between 1995 and 2005, and when the Texas-Mexico border region is included, the number jumps to 10,000 during that time.

"International rates of dengue infection have increased 30-fold in the last 50 years, to an estimated 50 to 100 million infections, a half-million hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths annually in more than 100 countries."

"International rates of dengue infection have increased 30-fold in the last 50 years, to an estimated 50 to 100 million infections, a half-million hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths annually in more than 100 countries. In Mexico, Central and South America more than 900,000 dengue fever cases were reported in 2007."

Factors Contributing to Rise in Dengue

Many factors may be contributing to the rise in dengue fever, including increasing international travel and trade, densely-populated communities living in poverty in many countries including the United States, and the effects of global warming, NRDC said.

"Researchers project that because of global warming, in the next 75 years 3 billion additional people will become at risk for the disease across the globe."

Known as "Breakbone Fever" because of its classic symptoms, dengue is characterized by agonizing aching in the bones, joints and muscles, a pounding headache, pain behind the eyes, a high fever and a classic rash.

There is no cure or vaccine against the virus, only preventative and supportive care.

Actions Can Reduce Spread

Both large-scale and individual actions can reduce the spread of dengue fever, NRDC said.

"Individuals can protect themselves and their families from mosquito-borne illnesses by wearing loose-fitting long sleeves and pants when outdoors and using DEET (not more than 30%) on exposed skin when the bugs are biting.

"Individuals can also make sure windows and doors have tight fitting screens and that they don't leave open containers of water in or near their homes. Further precautions should also be taken while traveling to countries where dengue fever is already established.

"At a national and international level, strong climate legislation is needed to slow global warming.

"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) should require reporting of dengue fever so the spread of the disease within the US can be accurately tracked."

NRDC's report recommends that local and national governments train clinicians, share surveillance data, enhance lab capacity, and coordinate with international partners to prevent future outbreaks and reduce the threat to public health.

The National Resources Defense Council is a nonprofit environmental action group based in New York.

Wildlife is under serious threat across the planet, despite the commitment by world leaders to reverse the trend of biodiversity loss by 2010, according to a detailed analysis of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species.

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Asian Wild Ass (Equus hemionus). Threat category Endangered

Photo © Jean-Christophe Vié

The IUCN assessment, which is published every four years, has been released just before the deadline governments set themselves to evaluate how successful they were in achieving the 2010 target to reduce biodiversity loss.

Deadline will not be met

The IUCN report, "Wildlife in a Changing World," shows the 2010 target will not be met, the organization said in a statement today.

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"When governments take action to reduce biodiversity loss there are some conservation successes, but we are still a long way from reversing the trend," says Jean-Christophe Vié, deputy head of IUCN's Species Program and senior editor of the publication.

"It's time to recognize that nature is the largest company on Earth working for the benefit of 100 percent of humankind--and it's doing it for free.

"Governments should put as much effort, if not more, into saving nature as they do into saving economic and financial sectors."

IUCN is the world's oldest and largest global environmental network. Based in Switzerland, it is a democratic membership union with more than 1,000 government and NGO member organizations, and almost 11,000 volunteer scientists in more than 160 countries.

Its report analyzes 44,838 species on the IUCN Red List and presents results by groups of species, geographical regions, and different habitats, such as marine, freshwater and terrestrial.

The Red List is the most comprehensive information source on the global conservation status of species. It is based on an objective system of assessing the risk of extinction for a species. Species listed as Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable are collectively described as threatened.     

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"A minimum of 16,928 species are threatened with extinction."

 

The updated list shows 869 species are Extinct or Extinct in the Wild, and this figure rises to 1,159 if the 290 Critically Endangered species tagged as Possibly Extinct are included, IUCN said.

"Overall, a minimum of 16,928 species are threatened with extinction."

Considering that only 2.7 percent of the 1.8 million described species have been analyzed, this number is a gross underestimate, IUCN added. "But it does provide a useful snapshot of what is happening to all forms of life on Earth."

Shoebill-picture.jpgShoebill (Balaeniceps rex). Threat category Vulnerable  (
Photo © Jean-Christophe Vié)

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Are pollutants causing a surge in cancers in wildlife, threatening the conservation and even survival of some species? And is their fate a flashing light for the health of humans?"

GreenTurtleFace-picture.jpg"Cancer is one of the leading health concerns for humans, accounting for more than 10 percent of human deaths," said Denise McAloose, chief pathologist for the Wildlife Conservation Society's Global Health Program.

"But we now understand that cancer can kill wild animals at similar rates."

 

Green turtles are one of several marine species that suffer from high levels of cancer in the wild.

Photo by Sharon Deem

McAloose is the lead author of an article published in the July issue the journal Nature Reviews Cancer, which makes the point that some wild animal species suffer from cancer at the same rates that humans and some species serve as early-warning sentinels for animal and human health.

Many species living within polluted aquatic environments suffer high rates of cancerous tumors, and studies strongly suggest links between wildlife cancers and human pollutants, says the New York-based Wildlife Conservation Society, in a statement about the research.

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For example, the study cites the case of beluga whales in North America's St. Lawrence River system.

"These whales have an extraordinarily high rate of intestinal cancer, which is their second leading cause of death.

"One type of pollutant in these waters--polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (or PAHs)--is a well-known carcinogen in humans, and PAHs are suspected carcinogens for beluga whales as well."

A beluga whale in New York Aquarium. Wild belugas in the nearby St. Lawrence River system suffer from intestinal cancer.

NGS photo by Winfield Parks

Fish in other industrialized waterways, including brown bullhead catfish and English sole, also exhibit high levels of cancer.

Virus-induced cancers can affect the ability of some wildlife populations to reproduce.

"Genital tumors in California sea lions on North America's western coast occur at much higher rates than previously documented. Oceanic dolphin species, such as the dusky dolphin and Burmeister's porpoise (both found in the coastal waters of South America), are also showing higher rates of genital carcinomas."

Other virus-induced cancers can affect the feeding ability or eyesight of wildlife.

"Green sea turtles--a migratory species in oceans across the globe--suffer from fibropapillomatosis, a disease that causes skin and internal organ tumors. A virus is suspected as the cause these tumors, and environmental factors such as human-manufactured carcinogens might exacerbate their severity or prevalence."

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Green turtle with a tumor.

Photo by Cynthia Lagueux

In certain situations, cancer threatens the survival of entire species.

"The Tasmanian devil, the world's largest carnivorous marsupial, is at risk of extinction due to a cancer known as devil facial tumor disease. This form of contagious cancer spreads between individual Tasmanian devils through direct contact (primarily fighting and biting).

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"To save the species from this fatal disease, conservationists are relocating cancer-free Tasmanian devils to geographically isolated areas or zoos."

The authors highlight the critical need to protect both animals and people through increased health monitoring.

"Monitoring the health of wildlife can illuminate the causes of cancer in animal populations; thereby, better safeguarding animals and humans against possible disease.

"Evaluating cancer threats in wildlife populations requires the collaborative efforts of biologists, veterinarians, and pathologists as well as the earnest engagement of governments and international agencies."

The paper concludes that more resources are necessary to support wildlife health monitoring.

"Examining the impact of cancer in wildlife, in particular those instances when human activities are identified as the cause, can contribute to more effective conservation and fits within the One World-One Health approach of reducing threats to both human and animal health," said William Karesh, vice president and director of WCS's Global Health Program.

Good news for polar bears, walruses, caribou:

Russia will create a new 3.7 million-acre (1.5 million-hectare) park in the Arctic, a central area for the Barents and Kara Sea polar bear populations, WWF said today.

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NGS photo of polar bear in the Russian Arctic by Gordon Wiltsie

Announcing the park, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said he hoped it would be a major attraction for tourism, and announced that he personally plans to vacation there, WWF said.

The new Russian Arctic park is located on the northern part of Novaya Zemlya, a long island that arcs out into the Arctic Ocean between the Barents and Kara Seas, WWF said. It also includes some adjacent marine areas.

"WWF has long been lobbying for the park, which is also a key area for walrus, wild reindeer and bird population," the conservation charity said.

Industrial activities are prohibited in the new park.

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NGS photo of walruses swimming in Arctic waters by Bruce Dale

"This is exactly the sort of thing we need to see from Arctic governments," said Neil Hamilton, director of WWF International's Arctic Programme.

"The only way these Arctic populations are going to survive the ecological havoc caused by global warming is by providing them with enough breathing room."

"If industrial activity is kept far enough from key habitat, the animals have a chance."

"We also need urgent global action on climate change to ensure that the parks stay cold enough."

 
"We also need urgent global action on climate change to ensure that the parks stay cold enough for animals such as polar bears and wild reindeer."

Novaya-Zemlya-map.jpgWhile WWF is pleased with the park creation, it notes that the protected area is smaller than the 5 million hectares initially planned, the organization said in a statement.

"Despite the fact that the Russian Arctic Park is our big achievement, we're sorry that not all planned territories were included in the park area," says Oleg Sutkaitis, Head of the Barents Sea Ecoregional Office for WWF Russia.

"Franz Josef Land and Victoria Island were crossed out from the project, but we will now work on widening the park's borders."

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As if global warming isn't giving us enough to worry about, now scientists say it could lead to bigger---and possibly more---spiders of at least one hairy species.

Read the full story >>

Photograph by Tom Uhlman/AP

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The Yellow River in northern China, the Ganges in India, the Niger in West Africa, and the Colorado in the southwestern United States, are among the rivers in some of the world's most populous regions that are losing water, according to a new comprehensive study of global stream flow.

The study, led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), suggests that in many cases the reduced flows are associated with climate change, NCAR said in a news release. "The process could potentially threaten future supplies of food and water."

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The scientists, who examined stream flow from 1948 to 2004, found significant changes in about one-third of the world's largest rivers. Of those, rivers with decreased flow outnumbered those with increased flow by a ratio of about 2.5 to 1.The scientists reported greater stream flow over sparsely populated areas near the Arctic Ocean, where snow and ice are rapidly melting.

NGS photo of Ganges River by George F. Mobley

"Reduced runoff is increasing the pressure on freshwater resources in much of the world, especially with more demand for water as population increases," says NCAR scientist Aiguo Dai, the lead author, in the release. "Freshwater being a vital resource, the downward trends are a great concern."

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Many factors can affect river discharge, including dams and the diversion of water for agriculture and industry, NCAR said. "The researchers found, however, that the reduced flows in many cases appear to be related to global climate change, which is altering precipitation patterns and increasing the rate of evaporation. The results are consistent with previous research by Dai and others showing widespread drying and increased drought over many land areas.

"The study raises wider ecological and climate concerns. Discharge from the world's great rivers results in deposits of dissolved nutrients and minerals into the oceans.

UCAR photo of Aiguo Dai by Carlye Calvin

"The freshwater flow also affects global ocean circulation patterns, which are driven by changes in salinity and temperature and which play a vital role in regulating the world's climate."

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"Planet Walker" John Francis spent 22 years of his life walking--17 years of them in silence.

"On January 17, 1971, I witnessed a crude oil spill of nearly a half-million gallons in the waters near the Golden Gate Bridge," he writes in his book "Planetwalker."

"The oil spill was my first experience with a major environmental insult.

"As I drove my car over the Golden Gate I felt some responsibility for the mess washing up on the shore. It was nearly a year afterwards, still feeling this responsibility, that I gave up the use of motorized vehicles and started walking."

Months after he started walking everywhere, Francis took a vow of silence to demonstrate his conviction. For the next two decades he walked ... and walked.

First he hiked across America from the Pacific to the Atlantic, then across Cuba and Brazil. "Planetwalker," (National Geographic Books, $16.95), released today in softcover, describes the experience of his silent crusade, how it expanded into a quest to improve how humans treat each other, and how people can better communicate and work together to benefit the planet.

"I had begun a pilgrimage, an outer and inner journey, as part of my education dedicated to raise environmental consciousness, promote earth stewardship and world peace," Francis writes.

The Importance of Listening

Walking in silence, Francis says, he learned the importance of listening. He ended his silence on Earth Day 1990, but not his pilgrimage.

I spoke to Francis on the phone earlier today. He is in the middle of retracing his epic walk around the United States, but in the reverse direction. "On this walk I can speak to people," he told me. "I am retracing my steps to see what is different from my first journey--and to form a partnership with people and organizations on environmental issues."

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Large, often barren, tropical trees stand where they once grew when the area was in severe drought and water levels in Lake Bosumtwi in Ghana had bottomed out. Submerged in 50-65 feet (15-20 meters) of water, the trees are stark reminders of severe, long lasting dry spells from just a few centuries ago.

Photo by J.T. Overpeck and W. Wheeler, University of Arizona.

A new study of lake sediments in Ghana suggests that severe droughts lasting several decades, even centuries, were the norm in West Africa over the past 3,000 years, University of Arizona scientists said today. The current bout of planetary warming could mean that future conditions in the region will favor even more extreme droughts, they added.

"The earlier dry spells dwarfed the well-documented drought that plagued West Africa in the late-20th century, and as the planet warms, the study's authors believe the region's rainfall patterns will have an even greater impact," Arizona said in a news statement.

The team of geoscientists and climate scientists, led by Jonathan Overpeck of the University of Arizona and his former doctoral student, lead author Timothy Shanahan, who is now at the University of Texas (UT) at Austin, announced their findings in the April 17, 2009, issue of Science.

Because of close agreement amongst several data sets, the scientists believe the droughts are driven in part by circulation of the ocean and atmosphere in and above the Atlantic--and possibly beyond, the news release said. "If climate models for such circulation patterns hold true, the study suggests global warming could create conditions that favor extreme droughts."

"Clearly, much of West Africa is already on the edge of sustainability," Overpeck says, "and the situation could become much more dire in the future with increased global warming."

The findings emerged from sediments that lie at the bottom of Lake Bosumtwi in Ghana, deposits of soil and organic matter that contain annual bands of light (winter) and dark (summer) layers that stretch back more than three millennia, Arizona University said. Oxygen (O) isotopes in calcium carbonate from the sediment provided a detailed record of dry and wet periods. Higher concentrations of common 16O indicated greater rainfall, while higher concentrations of slightly heavier, and therefore harder to evaporate, 18O indicated periods of drier conditions and drought.

"Lake Bosumtwi is really unique in that its one of the few locations in tropical West Africa where varves, annual sediment layers, are preserved. This allows us to look at changes in climate at very high resolution," said Shanahan, now an assistant professor at UT.

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The National Science Foundation (NSF) today announced a U.S.$48 million partnership with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to support innovative solutions to critical agricultural challenges in developing countries.

Each organization will provide $24 million over five years to support a competitive awards program for science research projects that address drought, pests, disease and other serious problems facing small farmers and their families who rely on their crops for their food and income, the NSF said in a news release.

The award program will be called BREAD--Basic Research to Enable Agricultural Development--and will support a competitive award program for science research projects that develop innovative approaches and technologies to boost agricultural productivity in developing countries.

NGS photo of Nigerian woman carrying cassava by Lynn Johnson

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NGS photo by George F. Mobley

By including two percent fish oil in the diet of cattle, the amount of methane released by the animals can be reduced, experiments in Ireland have demonstrated.

"The fish oil affects the methane-producing bacteria in the rumen part of the cow's gut, leading to reduced emissions," says Lorraine Lillis, one of the University College Dublin researchers, in a news release issued today by the Society for General Microbiology. "Understanding which microbial species are particularly influenced by changes in diet and relating them to methane production could bring about a more targeted approach to reducing methane emissions in animals."

More than a third of all methane emissions, around 900 billion tonnes every year, are produced by methanogen bacteria that live in the digestive systems of ruminants such as cattle, sheep and goats, according to the release. "By volume, methane is 20 times more powerful at trapping solar energy than carbon dioxide, making it a potent greenhouse gas."

Approximately half of Irish agricultural methane emissions result from farm animals. There have been suggestions that, to help combat global warming, a cap be placed on the number of animals in animal production due to their methane production, the release added. "But with a reduction in methane levels through diet this may not be as necessary."

Other benefits to animals of omega 3 fatty acids in fish oils have been well documented: helping the heart and circulatory system, and improving meat quality.

Related National Geographic News stories:

California Cows Fail Latest Emissions Test

New Zealand Tries to Cap Gaseous Sheep Burps


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Earth at Night picture courtesy NOAA

This opinion piece was sent to the media by WWF and the South African civil rights leader/Nobel Peace Prize laureate Archbishop Desmond Tutu. It is published in full as a public service on the occasion of Earth Hour 2009.

By Archbishop Desmond Tutu & James Leape, Director General, WWF International

This coming Saturday, hundreds of millions of people around the world will join together in what's being described as a vote for the planet. From New York to Beijing, from Cape Town to Paris, citizens will turn their lights off for sixty minutes to demand action on climate change.

Earth Hour is a unique opportunity for us all to send a message to the world's leaders that 2009 is the year for a global deal to tackle global warming.

We are used to seeing climate change discussed in both environmental and economic terms. The impacts on the planet are all too obvious -- melting polar ice caps, drought and rising sea levels have become the depressing staple of our daily news for several years.

More recently, given the global recession, talk has turned to the economics of climate change, the costs of keeping it manageable and the costs if we don't. The trillions of dollars in stimulus packages now being put in place across the world are increasingly seen as a chance to invest in sustainable green technologies and production which will not only help build a low-carbon future but which will kick-start growth and safeguard jobs.

But there is another dimension to the climate change debate which does not tend to get as much attention as the environmental and economic impacts -- and that is the moral imperative which we all share to prevent a massive humanitarian crisis. Global warming is not just an ecological and financial dilemma -- it is an ethical one which opens up unsettling questions concerning justice, fairness, responsibilities and obligations.

When the world's leaders meet in Copenhagen in December to agree a global climate deal to replace the weak and ageing Kyoto Protocol, they will know that the eyes of the world are upon them. We expect them to do the right thing. That means agreeing a deal which is ambitious and achievable - and also equitable. A fair deal in Copenhagen must be based on the "polluter pays" principle -- those most responsible for climate damage must accept their obligations and bear most of the cost.

WWF video

We believe the moral obligation we all bear for finding a sustainable and equitable solution to climate change is as compelling as the economic and environmental arguments. Climate change undermines livelihoods and widens the gulf between rich and poor. You only have to look at those who will be -- are already being -- worst affected by global warming to realize this is an issue of social justice, poverty and human rights.

Climate refugees are already a reality - witness the coastal communities in the Indian state of Orissa who have been forced to abandon their homes and fields because of rising sea levels, or the victims of extreme weather events like Hurricane Katrina. Failure to keep global warming below the crucial 2°C threshold will see many, many more examples of climate refugees. Last year global crop failures and spiralling food prices were exacerbated by - amongst other things - drought linked to climate change. Nearly half the world's population lives within 100km of the coast - where will they go when sea levels rise as a result of global warming? As is so often the case, the developing world will be hardest hit.

To be equitable, a global climate deal must also be effective.

That means bold and quantifiable emissions reductions to protect vulnerable people and places from the worst impacts.

Save-Earth-1.jpgThe good news is that we already have the technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by nearly half in the next thirty years by investing in energy efficiency, moving to renewable energy supplies such as wind and solar power, and stopping the destruction of the world's great forests. What's more, the costs of moving to a low carbon economy are affordable, especially compared with the costs of not doing anything.

A recent study by McKinsey & Co identified more than two hundred opportunities spread across all regions and in all sectors of industry which - if they were all implemented - would help keep us under the critical 2°C threshold. What is currently lacking is the political will to implement the necessary measures.

We are hopeful that the political will to enable a global climate deal is changing. When the world's leaders sit around the negotiation table this coming December, they will have to come to grips with three powerful truths. As a matter of science, it is clear that if we fail to curb our emissions, we are heading for catastrophic climate change.

As a matter of economics, we can afford to meet the challenge. And as a matter of simple justice, we must act boldly and urgently to protect the most vulnerable among us. Between now and December, the challenge for all of us is to ensure our demand for action is heard - and that challenge starts with Earth Hour.

The National Geographic Society will participate in Earth Hour observance by going dark -- turning off all interior and exterior lighting on its Washington, D.C. campus -- Saturday evening from 8:30 p.m. to 9:30 p.m Eastern time. As part of it's "Preserve Our Planet" initiative, the National Geographic Channel is supporting Earth Hour by airing public service announcements asking viewers to participate in the observance by turning off their lights.

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It is only relatively recently that it has dawned upon humans that the ocean is not something that can be taken for granted.

Vast, deep, unfathomable in so many ways, the great body of liquid that envelops our planet at an average depth of some six miles acts as the main regulator of our weather and climate, generator of our atmosphere, and provider, directly and indirectly, of our food and freshwater.

As we begin to grasp how totally dependent we are on the sea for our survival, so do we also understand how much we have harmed it.

"We have learned more about the ocean in the last half century than in all of preceding history," says Sylvia Earle, marine biologist and co-author of National Geographic's new book, "Ocean: An Illustrated Atlas."

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But at the same time, more has changed, she told me. "We have lost more than 90 percent of the big fish in the sea and many of the smaller ones too. Half the coral reefs are gone or in serious decline. There are an amazing number of dead zones. That's the bad news.

"The good news: Now we know. It's only when we know that we can care and act to secure for ourselves an enduring place within the natural systems that sustain us."

NGS photo

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Sand-fleas such as Hyperoche capucinus, are common predators swimming in polar waters. This specimen is about the width of a finger.

Russ Hopcroft, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Census of Marine Life.

Earth's unique, forbidding ice oceans of the Arctic and Antarctic have revealed secrets to explorers, who were especially surprised to find at least 235 species live in both polar seas despite a distance of more than 7,000-mile (13,000-kilometer) distance in between, the Census of Marine Life (CoML) project announced today.

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"The scientists found marine life that both poles apparently share in common include marathoners such as grey whales and birds, but also worms, crustaceans, and angelic snail-like pteropods, the latter discoveries opening a host of future research questions about where they originated and how they wound up at both ends of the Earth," the CoML said in a news statement.

DNA analysis is underway to confirm whether the species are indeed identical.

Among many other findings, the scientists also documented evidence of cold water-loving species shifting towards both poles to escape rising ocean temperatures.

The discoveries are the result of a series of voyages conducted during International Polar Year, 2007-2008.

The studies by a global network of polar researchers have added substantially to human knowledge about the diversity, distribution and abundance of marine life, with results to be fully detailed in the world's first Census report, to be released in London October 4, 2010.

"The polar seas, far from being biological deserts, teem with an amazing quantity and variety of life," said Ian Poiner, chair of the Census Scientific Steering Committee. "Only through the co-operation of 500 people from more than 25 countries could the daunting environmental challenges be overcome to produce research of such unprecedented scale and importance. And humanity is only starting to understand the nature of these regions."

Census researchers last year established that several octopus types have repeatedly colonized the deep sea, each migration coinciding with retreating Antarctic ice over 30 million years.

Russ Hopcroft, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Census of Marine Life.

"Today they theorize that the Antarctic also regularly refreshes the world's oceans with new varieties of sea spiders, isopods (crustaceans related to shrimp and crabs), and others as well. They believe the new species evolve when expansions of ice cloister Antarctica; when the ice retreats, they radiate northward along the same pathways followed by the octopuses," the CoML release said.

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The nemertean Pelagonemertes rollestoni, about 1.2 inches (3 centimeters) long, hunts for zooplankton prey that it will harpoon with a dart attached to the tongue coiled within it. It yellow stomach reaches out to feed all parts of the body.

Russ Hopcroft, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Census of Marine Life.

More from National Geographic News:

PHOTOS: Odd, Identical Species Found at Both Poles

PHOTOS: New Deep-Sea Species Revealed by Marine Census

Ocean Life Survey Reveals World of Deep-Sea Creatures

 

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Without decisive action, global warming in the 21st century is likely to accelerate at a much faster pace and cause more environmental damage than predicted, according to a leading member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

"There is a real risk that human-caused climate change will accelerate the release of carbon dioxide from forest and tundra ecosystems, which have been storing a lot of carbon for thousands of years," said Chris Field, a professor of biology and of environmental Earth system science at Stanford University, and a senior fellow at Stanford's Woods Institute for the Environment. "We don't want to cross a critical threshold where this massive release of carbon starts to run on autopilot."

NGS photo by Mark Thiessen

Field pointed to recent studies showing that, in a business-as-usual world, higher temperatures could ignite tropical forests and melt the Arctic tundra, releasing billions of tons of greenhouse gas that could raise global temperatures even more -- "a vicious cycle that could spiral out of control by the end of the century."

Field presented his findings today at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Chicago.

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NASA

We hear a lot about how carbon dioxide emissions are warming the atmosphere and changing climate in ways that are damaging, if not catastrophic, for life on Earth.

Increasingly we are also learning about the impact of carbon dioxide on the oceans. As the sea absorbs carbon from the air its chemistry is changing, becoming more acidic. This also is likely to have a profound impact on life, experts warn.

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More than 150 marine scientists from 26 countries called for immediate action by policymakers to reduce carbon dioxide emissions sharply so as to avoid widespread and severe damage to marine ecosystems from ocean acidification. They sounded the alarm in the Monaco Declaration, released Friday, according to a news release by Unesco.

Ocean acidification could affect marine food webs and lead to substantial changes in commercial fish stocks, threatening protein supply and food security for millions of people as well as the multi-billion dollar fishing industry, the Monaco Declaration says.

"Coral reefs provide fish habitat, generate billions of dollars annually in tourism, protect shorelines from erosion and flooding, and provide the foundation for tremendous biodiversity, equivalent to that found in tropical rain forests," the Declaration says.

"Yet by mid-century, ocean acidification may render most regions chemically inhospitable to coral reefs. These and other acidification related changes could affect a wealth of marine goods and services, such as our ability to use the ocean to manage waste, to provide chemicals to make new medicines, and to benefit from its natural capacity to regulate climate.

"For instance, ocean acidification will reduce the ocean's capacity to absorb anthropogenic CO2, which will exacerbate climate change."

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Photo courtesy University of Rochester

A fossil of a tropical, freshwater, Asian turtle suggests that animals migrated from Asia to North America directly across a freshwater sea floating atop the warm, salty Arctic Ocean, scientists announced today in the journal Geology.

The finding (in the photo above) also suggests that a rapid influx of carbon dioxide some 90 million years ago was the likely cause of a super-greenhouse effect that created extraordinary polar heat.

"We're talking about extremely warm, ice-free conditions in the Arctic region, allowing migrations across the pole," says John Tarduno, professor  of geophysics at the University of Rochester, New York, and leader of the expedition that found the fossil. Tarduno's work was funded in part by the National Geographic Society's Committee for Research and Exploration.

"We've known there's been an interchange of animals between Asia and North America in the late Cretaceous period, but this is the first example we have of a fossil in the High Arctic region showing how this migration may have taken place," he says in a news release about the research.

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Nuclear energy is considered by many people to be the only realistic alternative to fossil fuel to power our civilization. But one of the problems of generating nuclear energy is that it generates toxic waste which can be extremely hazardous for thousands of years.

Now physicists at the University of Texas at Austin have designed a system that, when fully developed, would use fusion to relatively inexpensively destroy the waste from nuclear fission in nuclear power plants.

"Our waste destruction system, we believe, will allow nuclear power -- a low carbon source of energy -- to take its place in helping us combat global warming," said Mike Kotschenreuther, senior research scientist with the Institute for Fusion Studies (IFS) and Department of Physics.

 
"The invention could help combat global warming by making nuclear power cleaner and thus a more viable replacement of carbon-heavy energy sources, such as coal," he said in a university news release.

There are more than 100 fission reactors, called "light water reactors" (LWRs), producing power in the United States, the release explained. "The nuclear waste from these reactors is stored and not reprocessed. Some other countries, such as France and Japan, do reprocess the waste."

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Toxic nuclear waste is stored at sites around the U.S. Debate surrounds the construction of a large-scale geological storage site at Yucca Mountain in Nevada (located on the U.S. Department of Energy map on the right), which many maintain is costly and dangerous. The storage capacity of Yucca Mountain, which is not expected to open until 2020, is set at 77,000 tons. The amount of nuclear waste generated by the U.S. will exceed this amount by 2010.

"The physicists' new invention could drastically decrease the need for any additional or expanded geological repositories," UT said.

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Unchecked emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere would lead to a tenfold expansion of low-oxygen areas in the global ocean that will remain for thousands of years to come, adversely affecting fisheries and ocean ecosystems far into the future.

Mississippi Dead Zone image courtesy NASA

This prediction is made by Danish scientists in a paper "Long-term ocean oxygen depletion in response to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels," published online today in the journal Nature Geoscience.

Also known as "dead zones," low-oxygen areas in the ocean are where fish, crabs and clams are not able to live. In shallow coastal regions, these zones can be caused by runoff of human waste or excess fertilizers from farming.

Oxygen-starved areas in bays and coastal waters have been expanding since the 1960s, according to the United Nations Environment Programme (see sidebar). There are now more than 400 known dead zones in coastal waters worldwide, compared to 305 in the 1990s, National Geographic News reported in August last year.

Gary Shaffer, of the Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, who is the leader of the research team at the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS), says in a news release about the paper published in Nature Geoscience today that expansion of low-oxygen zones "would lead to increased frequency and severity of fish and shellfish mortality events, for example off the west coasts of the continents, like off Oregon and Chile."

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NASA

Climate scientists have long believed that while most of the rest of the globe has been getting steadily warmer, a large part of Antarctica -- the East Antarctic Ice Sheet -- has been getting colder.

But new research, depicted in this illustration released by NASA today, shows that for the last 50 years, much of Antarctica has been warming at a rate comparable to the rest of the world.

"In fact, the warming in West Antarctica is greater than the cooling in East Antarctica, meaning that on average the continent has gotten warmer," said Eric Steig, a University of Washington professor of Earth and space sciences and director of the Quaternary Research Center at the UW.

"West Antarctica is a very different place than East Antarctica, and there is a physical barrier, the Transantarctic Mountains, that separates the two," said Steig, lead author of a paper documenting the warming published in the January 22 edition of the journal Nature.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet, with an average elevation of about 6,000 feet above sea level, is substantially lower than East Antarctica, which has an average elevation of more than 10,000 feet. While the entire continent is essentially a desert, West Antarctica is subject to relatively warm, moist storms and receives much greater snowfall than East Antarctica.

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The study found that warming in West Antarctica exceeded one-tenth of a degree Celsius per decade for the last 50 years and more than offset the cooling in East Antarctica. The NASA illustration above depicts the warming areas in red, with the dark red showing the area that has warmed the most.

This NASA/JPL image from space on the right shows that giant, snow-covered swaths of Antarctica melted in January 2005.

The researchers determined the temperature changes by devising a statistical technique that uses data from satellites and from Antarctic weather stations to make a new estimate of temperature trends.

"The thing you hear all the time is that Antarctica is cooling and that's not the case," Steig said. "If anything it's the reverse, but it's more complex than that. Antarctica isn't warming at the same rate everywhere, and while some areas have been cooling for a long time the evidence shows the continent as a whole is getting warmer."

A major reason most of Antarctica was thought to be cooling is because of a hole in the Earth's protective ozone layer that appears during the spring months in the Southern Hemisphere's polar region. Steig noted that it is well established that the ozone hole has contributed to cooling in East Antarctica.

"However, it seems to have been assumed that the ozone hole was affecting the entire continent when there wasn't any evidence to support that idea, or even any theory to support it," he said.

"In any case, efforts to repair the ozone layer eventually will begin taking effect and the hole could be eliminated by the middle of this century. If that happens, all of Antarctica could begin warming on a par with the rest of the world."

Related National Geographic News story: Antarctica Heating Up, "Ignored" Satellite Data Shows

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Four years after the tsunami, corals are thriving in this transplant site on Achech, Indonesia.

Photo courtesy WCS

Coral reefs in areas of Indonesia devastated by the tsunami in the Indian Ocean four years ago today have made a rapid recovery, a team of scientists from the New York-based Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) reports.

The scientists, working in conjunction with the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies (ARCCoERS) along with government, community and non-government partners, has documented high densities of "baby corals" in areas that were severely impacted by the tsunami, the WCS said in a statement.

"On the 4th anniversary of the tsunami, this is a great story of ecosystem resilience and recovery," said Stuart Campbell, coordinator of the Wildlife Conservation Society's Indonesia Marine Program. "Our scientific monitoring is showing rapid growth of young corals in areas where the tsunami caused damage, and also the return of new generations of corals in areas previously damaged by destructive fishing.

"These findings provide new insights into coral recovery processes that can help us manage coral reefs in the face of climate change."

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Photo by L.S. Vors/WCS

Caribou could soon become endangered by threats such as oil exploration and climate change, according to a new book by authors from the Wildlife Conservation Society and the World Wildlife Fund.

"Many children who grow up in North America and Europe are familiar with caribou as symbols of holiday myths and legends," says Justina Ray, Executive Director of WCS-Canada and a co-author of the book.

Caribou is the name given to wild reindeer in North America. They are a familiar sight on holiday cards at this time of the year. Reindeer famously draw Santa's toy-laden sleigh through the starry Christmas sky.

"It's important to remember that reindeer play an important role in the rich ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere that we all rely on." Ray said in a WCS news release about her book. "Protecting calving areas and other habitats needed to satisfy their enormous needs can help us conserve the caribou for the benefit of both the natural world and human culture."

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Image of light-emitting diodes by Rensselaer/Kim and Schubert

If all of the world's light bulbs were replaced with energy-efficient LEDs for a period of 10 years, researchers say it would reduce global oil consumption by 962 million barrels, reduce the need for 280 global power plants, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 10 billion tons (a reduction in emissions of more than 12 percent, based on NASA estimates).

And all this would ultimately result in financial savings of U.S. $1.83 trillion.

"A revolution in the way we illuminate our world is imminent," say E. Fred Schubert and Jong Kyu Kim, two professors at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, New York.

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All photos by Cagan Sekercioglu

Why do some bird species lay only one egg in their nest, and others ten?

The substantial variation in number of eggs in the nest (clutch size) between bird species has long puzzled behavioral, ecological, and evolutionary biologists. One method to explain it focused on the biology of species, such as body weight. Another approach looked at the environment, such as seasonality.

By using data on clutch size for 5,290 species, and combining it with a wealth of information on the biology and the environment of these species, scientists believe they may have some answers.

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The data mosaic shows sea-ice coverage of mid-August 2008, revealing an almost ice-free Northwest Passage. The direct route through the Northwest Passage is highlighted by an orange line. The orange dotted line shows the indirect route, called the Amundsen Northwest Passage.
Image courtesy ESA

Radar data gathered by the European Space Agency's satellites in 2007 showed that the Arctic area covered by sea ice had shrunk to its lowest level since satellites began monitoring the area nearly 30 years ago.

"Data gathered this year revealed that the Northern Sea Route, also known as the Northeast Passage, and the Northwest Passage were both open simultaneously for the first time since satellite measurements began," the ESA said today. 

The agency is using the radar technology, which can monitor ice continuously through clouds and darkness, conditions often found in the region, to help ships navigate safely through the increasingly accessible Arctic.

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Photo by Leslie Babonis/UF Department of Zoology

Some species of sea snake need freshwater to survive, a University of Florida zoologist has discovered.

Harvey Lillywhite says it has been the "long-standing dogma" that the roughly 60 species of venomous sea snakes worldwide slake their thirst by drinking seawater, with internal salt glands filtering and excreting the salt.

"Experiments with three species of captive sea kraits captured near Taiwan, however, found that the snakes refused to drink saltwater even if thirsty -- and then would drink only freshwater or heavily diluted saltwater," he says.

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Kangaroo populations are likely to be devastated by the increase in average temperature that has been predicted for northern Australia over the next twenty years, researchers said today.

About half the current kangaroo range could disappear as water holes dry up and pasture recedes, a likely consequence of a rise of only two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) in average temperature, they said.

If temperatures rise by an average of six degrees Celsius (11 degrees Fahrenheit), which some climate models predict may happen in Australia by the end of this century, then almost the entire range of kangaroos could be destroyed and at least one species of kangaroo could go extinct.

 

Photo by Anne Keiser/NGS

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Illustration courtesy National Snow and Ice Data Center

The giant ice cube bobbing on the top of the planet just got smaller.

Warming sea and air probably caused the Arctic sea ice to melt to its lowest volume on record this summer, the University of Colorado at Boulder's National Snow and Ice Data Center reported today. 

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Image courtesy NASA

Almost lost in this week's news of the financial crisis, Presidential debate, and the North Korea nuclear deal once again heading toward the rocks were two discomfiting announcements about the environment.

The Global Carbon Project said carbon emissions have been growing about four times faster since 2000 than during the previous decade, despite the increasing international sense of urgency and efforts to curb emissions in a number of Kyoto Protocol signatory countries.

Although the melt season did not break the record for ice loss (set last year), NASA said its data showed that for a four-week period in August 2008, sea ice melted faster during that period than ever before.

So I was a little disappointed that climate change merited only a brief, passing mention in last night's first Presidential debate between Senators Barack Obama and John McCain.

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2007 had the lowest sea ice coverage in recorded history, seriously impinging upon the habitat of the polar bear. This image released by WWF is not one of the bears spotted in open water last week.

Image courtesy WWF

While looking for whales in Alaska's Chukchi Sea last week, U.S. government officials noticed an unusually high number of polar bears swimming in the open sea. Some were apparently heading for shore and some were heading toward ice. Several of them were 15 to 20 miles from either destination.

Polar bears are good swimmers, of course, and they do cross water to get out to the ice, which they use as a platform to hunt marine life.

Biologists have predicted that polar bears might be in trouble as global warming causes the Arctic ice to retreat.

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The Day of the Mosquito

Posted on August 20, 2008 | 0 Comments

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Pause for a moment on World Mosquito Day to reflect on the little bloodsucker that probably causes more human suffering than any other organism.

Observed annually today, August 20, World Mosquito Day originated in 1897 by Dr. Ronald Ross of the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, according to the American Mosquito Control Association, a nonprofit based in New Jersey.

Ross is credited with the discovery of the transmission of malaria by the mosquito, and was honored with a Nobel Prize for Medicine in 1902.

Each year 350-500 million cases of malaria occur worldwide, and over one million people die, most of them young children in sub-Saharan Africa, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

But malaria is not the only disease spread by mosquitoes. There's also West Nile virus, various strains of encephalitis, Dengue Fever, Rift Valley Fever, Yellow Fever.

Photo courtesy Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

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Giant snakes may not be about to invade much of the United States, after all. 

One of the more dire predictions of the consequences of climate change came from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) a few months ago: The giant Burmese python currently wreaking havoc in the Florida Everglades could find itself "comfortable" in as much as a third of the nation once temperatures rise as projected.

A new study using a different computer model released this week suggests otherwise. Climate change will actually seriously impact the current range of the reptile in the U.S., confining it to the swampy southern fringe of Florida.

Read more and see a snake "climate match" map and pictures in the extended entry.

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