Today is World Toilet Day.

Yes, that's right, there's a special day for toilets. But while it may be fodder for scatalogical jokes, for the many millions of people who do not have access to toilets it's no laughing matter.

Imagine what it would be like if we weren't able to flush away the vast amounts of human waste we generate in our cities. Apart from the stench and vermin, disease would flourish, as it does in many of the world's informal settlements.

Poor sanitation kills 1.8 million people a year--mostly children and primarily through diarrheal diseases, reports colleague Tasha Eichenseher today on National Geographic's Green Guide blog.

Read more about this intolerable situation and learn what a privilege it is to have access to a toilet.

Slowing deforestation is the most promising new strategy to protect the planet from disruptive climate change--but if it is not done carefully and sensibly biodiversity could be risk, an international group of scientists warned today.

"While it is clear that the massive destruction of tropical rainforests poses a serious threat to the incredibly rich biodiversity found on Earth, others hazards are not so explicit," the group says in an essay published in the November 16 issue of the journal Current Biology.

The group made their statement in anticipation of an international agreement that global warming can be slowed by reducing carbon emissions caused by deforestation.

Truck loaded with logs harvested from an Indonesian forest.

NGS stock photo by James P. Blair

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) consists of 192 countries that seek to develop intergovernmental policies that address challenges posed by climate change. The UNFCCC will meet in Copenhagen in December of 2009 to complete an agreement on incentives to reduce deforestation.

"Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) proposes to compensate tropical forest countries if they reduce their rate of deforestation, thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and includes strategies for conservation and enhancement of forest carbon stocks," the scientists say in a news statement.

"REDD should have multiple benefits. But, unfortunately, although the final rules might safeguard carbon stocks, they may fall short of their potential to protect biodiversity," says the author who organized the collaboration, Stuart L. Pimm from The Nicholas School of the Environment at Duke University. Pimm is a regular blogger for NatGeo News Watch and a former member of the National Geographic Committee for Research and Exploration.

Pimm and colleagues explain in their essay how REDD policies might have a less than advantageous impact on biodiversity and suggest how careful policies might reduce carbon emissions and benefit biodiversity.

Aerial view of clear cutting on a mountain side in Papua New Guinea.

NGS stock photo by James P. Blair

The researchers point out that if REDD emphasizes reducing deforestation rates, governments are likely to focus on areas that are cheapest to protect and that areas with high biodiversity might not be cost-competitive.

"Further, forests with the greatest density of carbon might not be the most essential locations for biodiversity conservation. There is also concern that deforestation processes will not be effectively abated by REDD, but simply displaced to other areas," the scientists say in their statement.

"Implementing REDD might accelerate the conversion and degradation of high biodiversity areas where REDD or other conservation funding is not available."

"Implementing REDD might accelerate the conversion and degradation of high biodiversity areas where REDD or other conservation funding is not available," Pimm explained.

The authors make several suggestions for maximizing the positive biodiversity impacts of REDD policies.

They propose that rules to conserve, assess and perhaps even financially support biodiversity should be included in the text of the Copenhagen agreement.

"Biodiversity, itself, is essential to ecosystem adaptation. Ensuring that REDD policies not only reduce carbon emissions but conserve biodiversity will ensure that humanity and the biosphere can be as resilient as possible to climate disruptions," Pimm said.

Countries that invest in the management and restoration of ecosystems are likely to see far higher rates of return and stronger economic growth in the 21st century, according to a study by 100 experts from science, economics and policy from across the globe.

"Some countries have already made the link to a limited extent and are glimpsing benefits in terms of jobs, livelihoods and economic returns that outstrip those wedded to older economic models of the previous century," says a statement accompanying the release today of a report prepared by The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB).

Silhouetted mangrove trees and roots at sunset, Gabon. Mangroves can save millions of dollars on dyke maintenance. Removing them to make shrimp farms may be a bad investment.

NGS stock photo by Michael Nichols

TEEB was launched by Germany and the European Commission in response to a proposal by the G8+5 Environment Ministers (Potsdam, Germany 2007) to develop a global study on the economics of biodiversity loss. It is an independent study, hosted by the United Nations Environment Programme with financial support from European countries.

In its report released today, TEEB gave these examples of countries already reaping benefits from ecosystem projects:

• In Venezuela, investment in the national protected area system is preventing sedimentation that otherwise could reduce farm earnings by around U.S.$3.5 million a year.
• Planting and protecting nearly 12,000 hectares of mangroves in Vietnam costs just over $1 million but saved annual expenditures on dyke maintenance of well over $7 million.
• One in 40 jobs in Europe is now linked with the environment and ecosystem services ranging from clean tech "eco-industries" to organic agriculture, sustainable forestry and eco-tourism.
• Investment in the protection of Guatemala's Maya Biosphere Reserve is generating an annual of income of close to $50 million a year, createed 7,000 jobs, and boosted local family incomes.

"Accelerate, scale-up and embed investments in the management and restoration of ecosystems."

The TEEB report, The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity, calls on policy-makers to "accelerate, scale-up and embed investments in the management and restoration of ecosystems."

It also calls for more sophisticated cost-benefit analysis before policy decisions are made.

The report cites a study on mangroves in south Thailand on the conversion of mangroves into shrimp farms, an example of cost-benefit analysis that was perhaps not very well thought-through.

"Subsidized commercial shrimp farms can generate returns of around $1,220 per hectare by clearing mangrove forests. But this does not take into account the losses to local communities totaling over $12,000 a hectare linked with wood and non-wood forest products, fisheries and coastal protection services," TEEB said.

"Nor does the profit to the commercial operators take into account the costs of rehabilitating the abandoned sites after five years of exploitation---estimated at over $9,000 a hectare." 

Ecosystem-savvy economy

TEEB's report outlines a plan to catalyze a transition to more ecosystem-savvy economies able to meet the multiple challenges and deliver the multiple opportunities on a planet of six billion people, rising to nine billion by 2050.

Said Pavan Sukhdev, TEEB's study leader, "Nature's multiple and complex values have direct economic impacts on human wellbeing and public and private spending. Recognizing and rewarding the value delivered to society by the natural environment must become a policy priority.

"The economic invisibility of ecosystems and biodiversity is increased by our dominant economic model, which is consumption-led, production-driven, and GDP-measured. This model is in need of significant reform. The multiple crises we are experiencing--fuel, food, finance, and the economy--serve as reminders of the need for change.

"It is now up to governments to provide fiscal or other incentives to move us from short-term opportunism to long-term stewardship. The right policies can help us move toward a resource efficient economy."

The report comes in advance of the United Nations climate convention meeting in Copenhagen where governments are expected to give the green light to funding developing countries to maintain forests, the statement says.

"Close to 20 per cent of current global greenhouse gas emissions are linked with deforestation. Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) aims to counter this while also generating financial flows from North to South.

"REDD and REDD-Plus, which includes not only maintaining forests but planting and recovering forest systems, secured the backing of close 15 presidents and prime ministers at a special meeting hosted last month by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon." (Read about this on Stuart Pimm's blog Better REDD than dead when it comes to climate change.) 

Kinabatangan River and forest, East Malaysia. Paying countries to not only maintain forests but also plant and recover forest systems would recognize the enormous economic value these ecosystems provide.

NGS stock photo by James P. Blair

Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary General and UNEP Executive Director, said: "Paying developing countries under REDD marks a fundamental step forward in terms of bringing the huge financial importance of ecosystems and biodiversity into the centre of economic activity."

"It could open the door to more creative and forward looking funds and mechanisms covering other nature-based infrastructure such as peatlands and wetlands en route to support for the services generated by coastal and marine ecosystems such as coral reefs to mangroves," he said.

Read on for the key recommendations of The Economics of Ecosystems and Biovidersity:

► Read This Entire Post

The 2009 update of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species shows that 17,291 species out of the 47,677 assessed species are threatened with extinction, the International Union for the Conservation of Nature said today.

Threatened with extinction are:

• 21 percent of all known mammals
• 30 percent of all known amphibians
• 12 percent of all known birds
• 28 percent of assessed reptiles
• 37 percent of assessed freshwater fishes
• 70 percent of assessed plants
• 35 percent of assessed invertebrates

"The scientific evidence of a serious extinction crisis is mounting," said Jane Smart, director of IUCN's Biodiversity Conservation Group, in a news statement accompanying the 2009 Red List.

This gorgeted puffleg (Eriocnemis isabellae) entered the IUCN Red List in 2009 as Critically Endangered. The species is known from southwest Colombia, where it occurs in a tiny area of the Serraníadel Pinche. The global population is not known but is presumably very small given that the area of suitable habitat available for this species is thought to be less than 2,500 acres, and it is suspected to be decreasing as elfin forest habitat is converted for agriculture and illegal coca plantations. The primary threat to this bird is the shifting of the agricultural border towards remaining primary forests, causing a loss of vegetation cover, contamination of watersheds and soil degradation. Illegal coca cultivation is a major threat due to the lack of governmental presence, with 8.3 percent of potentially suitable habitat reportedly damaged annually by coca cultivation.

Photo © Alex Cortes. Photo supplied by BirdLife International.

"It's time for governments to start getting serious about saving species and make sure it's high on their agendas for next year, as we're rapidly running out of time."

"January sees the launch of the International Year of Biodiversity," Jane Smart added in today's statement. "The latest analysis of the IUCN Red List shows the 2010 target to reduce biodiversity loss will not be met.

"It's time for governments to start getting serious about saving species and make sure it's high on their agendas for next year, as we're rapidly running out of time."

Tip of the iceberg

"This year's IUCN Red List makes for sobering reading," said Craig Hilton-Taylor, manager of the IUCN Red List Unit. "These results are just the tip of the iceberg. We have only managed to assess 47,663 species so far; there are many more millions out there which could be under serious threat. We do, however, know from experience that conservation action works so let's not wait until it's too late and start saving our species now."

Rabb's fringe-limbed treefrog (Ecnomiohyla rabborum) entered the IUCN Red List as Critically Endangered in 2009.

It is known only from central Panama, where it occurs in tropical forest canopy. In 2006, the chytrid fungus was reported in the area where this species is known to occur. Since then, only one individual has been heard calling. There is also some ongoing forest clearing within the species' range for the development of luxury holiday homes, although this potential threat has not yet reached critical levels. This treefrog is one of several species collected for captive breeding efforts, however so far attempts at captive breeding have not produced positive results.

Photo © Brad Wilson

Switzerland-based IUCN is a global environment organization that works on biodiversity, climate change, energy, human livelihoods and greening the world economy by supporting research, managing field projects, and bringing governments, NGOs, the United Nations and corporations together to develop policy, laws and best practice.

The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species is a comprehensive information source on the global conservation status of plant and animal species. It is based on an objective system for assessing the risk of extinction of a species should no conservation action be taken. Species are assigned to one of eight categories of threat based on whether they meet criteria linked to population trend, population size and structure and geographic range. Species listed as Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable are collectively described as "Threatened."

The Popondetta blue-eye (Pseudomugil connieae) occurs in three river systems within Papua New Guinea. Human population growth is the main threat to this fish, with increased urbanization and agriculture, which are potential sources of water pollution, resulting in reduced habitat quality within these river systems. This fish is also a much sought after species in the aquarium trade, which poses another potential threat to the population. The species entered the IUCN Red List as Vulnerable in 2009.

Photo © Gerald Allen

Highlights from today's IUCN statement:

Mammals

Of the world's 5,490 mammals, 79 are Extinct or Extinct in the Wild, with 188 Critically Endangered, 449 Endangered and 505 Vulnerable.

The eastern voalavo (Voalavo antsahabensis) appears on the IUCN Red List for the first time in the Endangered category. This rodent, endemic to Madagascar, is confined to montane tropical forest and is under threat from slash-and-burn farming.

Reptiles

There are now 1,677 reptiles on the IUCN Red List, with 293 added this year. In total, 469 are threatened with extinction and 22 are already Extinct or Extinct in the Wild.

The 165 endemic Philippine species new to the IUCN Red List include the Panay monitor lizard (Varanus mabitang), which is Endangered. This highly-specialized monitor lizard is threatened by habitat loss due to agriculture and logging and is hunted by humans for food.

The rare Panay monitor lizard occurs in large trees in primary lowland tropical moist forest. The species is a highly specialized frugivorous monitor lizard (it feeds on fruit). The loss and degradation of lowland forest habitat through conversion of land for agricultural use and logging operations is a threat to this lizard. The species is also hunted by humans for food and overhunting is a serious threat to the remaining population.

Photo © Tim Laman 

The sail-fin water lizard (Hydrosaurus pustulatus) enters in the Vulnerable category and is also threatened by habitat loss. Hatchlings are heavily collected both for the pet trade and for local consumption.

"The world's reptiles are undoubtedly suffering, but the picture may be much worse than it currently looks," says Simon Stuart, chair of IUCN's Species Survival Commission. "We need an assessment of all reptiles to understand the severity of the situation, but we don't have the U.S.$2-3 million to carry it out."

Amphibians

The IUCN Red List shows that 1,895 of the planet's 6,285 amphibians are in danger of extinction, making them the most threatened group of species known to date. Of these, 39 are already Extinct or Extinct in the Wild, 484 are Critically Endangered, 754 are Endangered and 657 are Vulnerable.

The Kihansi spray toad (Nectophrynoides asperginis) was formally declared Extinct in the Wild in the IUCN Red List in 2009. This amphibian was known only from the Kihansi Falls in Tanzania, where it was formerly abundant. However, after 2003 the population dramatically declined, and in January 2004 only three toads could be found, with just two males heard calling. There have been no records since then, despite surveys. The decline of this species was caused by the construction of a dam upstream of the falls in 2000 for the Lower Kihansi Hydropower Project. This removed 90 percent of the water flow, which hugely reduced the volume of spray and altered the vegetation. In 2003, the fungal disease chytridiomycosis was confirmed in dead Kihansi spray toads, and this disease was probably responsible for the final population crash.

Photo © Tim Herman

The fungus also affected the Rabb's fringe-limbed treefrog, which enters the Red List as Critically Endangered. (See photo and description higher on this page.)

Plants

Of the 12,151 plants on the IUCN Red List, 8,500 are threatened with extinction, with 114 already Extinct or Extinct in the Wild.

The Queen of the Andes (Puya raimondii) has been reassessed and remains in the Endangered category. Found in the Andes of Peru and Bolivia, it only produces seeds once in 80 years before dying. Climate change may already be impairing its ability to flower and cattle roam freely among many colonies, trampling or eating young plants. Other threats include young plants being eaten or trampled by livestock, fires, and removal of pith from trunks.

Photo © Antonio Lambe (Acción Ambiental)

 

Toussaintia patriciae is an Endangered shrub species native to Tanzania. It is known from less than 30 trees in the Udzwunga Mountains National Park and West Kilombero Nature Reserve, and occurs in very low numbers where found, though it is cryptic when not flowering and may be more common that is currently known. It is considered relatively secure at present, as the population is present in protected areas and occurs above the altitude to which firewood collectors are allowed to operate. However, this species could become more threatened very quickly if the impacts of human activities, especially wood collection, were to increase.

Photo © Quentin Luke

 

Invertebrates

There are now 7,615 invertebrates on the IUCN Red List this year, 2,639 of which are threatened with extinction. Scientists added 1,360 dragonflies and damselflies, bringing the total to 1,989, of which 261 are threatened.

The giant jewel (Chlorocypha centripunctata) is known from the Obudu Plateau, Nigeria and from Mount Kupe and the Bakossi Mountains Cameroon. The species occurs in and around rain forest streams above 700-meter altitude. Habitat loss through selective logging and forest destruction for agricultural expansion is the main threat to this species. The species entered the IUCN Red List as Vulnerable in 2009.

 

Photo © Kai Schütte

 

Molluscs

Scientists also added 94 molluscs, bringing the total number assessed to 2,306, of which 1,036 are threatened.

All seven freshwater snails from Lake Dianchi in Yunnan Province, China, are new to the IUCN Red List and all are threatened. These join 13 freshwater fishes from the same area, 12 of which are threatened. The main threats are pollution, introduced fish species and overharvesting.

Freshwater Fishes

There are now 3,120 freshwater fishes on the IUCN Red List, up 510 species from last year. Although there is still a long way to go before the status all the world's freshwater fishes is known, 1,147 of those assessed so far are threatened with extinction.

The giant pangasius (Pangasius sanitwongsei) is a Critically Endangered fish found in the Chao Phraya and Mekong river basins in Cambodia, China, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam. It inhabits the bottom and midwaters of large rivers surrounded by rain forest, and uses deep pools as refuges in the dry season. Overfishing for food, and to a lesser extent the aquarium trade, is the principle threat facing this species. Local fisherman have reported dramatic declines in sightings and catch, and a population decline of more than 99 percent over the past 30-45 years is inferred.

Photo © Chavalit Vidthayanon

The brown mudfish (Neochanna apoda), found only in New Zealand, has been moved from Near Threatened to Vulnerable as it has disappeared from many areas in its range. Approximately 85-90 percent of New Zealand's wetlands have been lost or degraded through drainage schemes, irrigation and land development.

The status of the Australian grayling (Prototroctes maraena), a freshwater fish, has improved as a result of conservation efforts. Now classed as Near Threatened as opposed to Vulnerable, the population has recovered thanks to fish ladders which have been constructed over dams to allow migration, enhanced riverside vegetation and the education of fishermen, who now face heavy penalties if found with this species

"Creatures living in freshwater have long been neglected."

"Creatures living in freshwater have long been neglected. This year we have again added a large number of them to the IUCN Red List and are confirming the high levels of threat to many freshwater animals and plants. This reflects the state of our precious water resources. There is now an urgency to pursue our effort but most importantly to start using this information to move towards a wise use of water resources," said Jean-Christophe Vié, deputy head of the IUCN Species Programme.

Downlisted bird species

The Mauritius fody (Foudia rubra) was downlisted from Critically Endangered to Endangered because its extremely small population has been stable since the early 1990s and is now increasing following an island translocation. The species is restricted to southwest Mauritius, and suffered rapid population declines between 1975 and 1993. However, since 1993 the population has been stable, and there is evidence that dispersing juveniles are now setting up new breeding territories, expanding the range of the species. Historically, clearance of upland forest, particularly for plantations in the 1970s, catastrophically affected this species. Introduced predators (e.g. black rat (Rattus rattus) and crab-eating macaque (Macaca fascicularis)) caused almost total breeding failure in most areas, and nest predation is still the major threat to the species.

Photo © Lucy Garrett (Rare Birds Yearbook). Photo supplied by BirdLife International.

Global figures for 2009 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species:
Total species assessed = 47,677
Total Extinct or Extinct in the Wild = 875 (2%) [Extinct = 809; Extinct in the Wild = 66].
Total threatened = 17,291 (36%) [Critically Endangered = 3,325; Endangered = 4,891; Vulnerable = 9,075].
Total Near Threatened = 3,650 (8%).
Total Lower Risk/conservation dependent = 281 (<1%) [this is an old category that is gradually being phased out of the Red List]
Total Data Deficient = 6,557 (14%)
Total Least Concern = 19,023 (40%)

Global figures for 2008 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species:
Total assessed = 44,838
Total Extinct or Extinct in the Wild = 869 (2%) [Extinct = 804 ; Extinct in the Wild = 65]
Total threatened = 16,928 (38%) [Critically Endangered = 3,246; Endangered = 4,770; Vulnerable = 8,912]
Total Near Threatened = 3,513 (8%)
Total Lower Risk/conservation dependent = 283 (<1%) [this is an old category that is gradually being phased out of the Red List]
Total Data Deficient = 5,570 (12%)
Total Least Concern = 17,675 (39%)

Not all species on the IUCN Red List are threatened. There are now more species on the IUCN Red List. This means that the overall percentage of threatened species has gone down by two percent. This is not because the status of the world's biodiversity is improving, IUCN noted, but because we have assessed more species.

"In the past, Red List assessments often focused on species that were already thought to be threatened, but as the Red List grows to include more complete assessments across entire groups, we are beginning to have a better idea of the relative proportion of species which are threatened against those which are not threatened."

Food production must be increased 70 percent to provide for the extra 2.4 billion people expected to come aboard planet Earth by 2050. We have the technology and the knowhow to do this without using a lot more arable land than we farm now--but only if we act in a targeted and strategic way.

That's the message that came out of Rome today at the start of this week's High-Level Expert Forum on How to Feed the World in 2050, convened by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.

The combined effect of population growth, strong income growth and urbanization is expected to result in almost the doubling of world demand for food, feed and fiber, FAO Director-General Jacques Diouf said at the start of today's session.

FAO Director-General Jacques Diouf opening the "How to Feed the World in 2050" with a welcome address to delegates, 12-13 October 2009, FAO Headquarters, Rome, Italy.

© FAO/Alessandra Benedetti

Opening the two-day forum, Diouf said that agriculture must become more productive if it is to feed a much larger world population while responding to the daunting environmental challenges ahead.

"Agriculture will have no choice but to be more productive."

"Agriculture will have no choice but to be more productive," Diouf said in remarks posted on the FAO Web site.

Increases would need to come mostly from yield growth and improved cropping intensity rather than from farming more land despite the fact that there are still ample land resources with potential for cultivation, particularly in sub-Sahara Africa and Latin America, he said.

He also noted that "while organic agriculture contributes to hunger and poverty reduction and should be promoted, it cannot by itself feed the rapidly growing population."

World population is projected to rise to 9.1 billion in 2050 from a current 6.7 billion, requiring a 70-percent increase in farm production, says an FAO report "How to Feed the World 2050."

According to the report, "By 2050 the world's population will reach 9.1 billion, 34 percent higher than today. Nearly all of this population increase will occur in developing countries. Urbanization will continue at an accelerated pace, and about 70 percent of the world's population will be urban (compared to 49 percent today). Income levels will be many multiples of what they are now.

"In order to feed this larger, more urban and richer population, food production (net of food used for biofuels) must increase by 70 percent. Annual cereal production will need to rise to about 3 billion tonnes from 2.1 billion today and annual meat production will need to rise by over 200 million tonnes to reach 470 million tonnes."

Sprinklers irrigating crops in South Africa

NGS photo by Bobby Haas

The report argues that the required increase in food production can be achieved "if the necessary investment is undertaken and policies conducive to agricultural production are put in place. But increasing production is not sufficient to achieve food security. It must be complemented by policies to enhance access by fighting poverty, especially in rural areas, as well as effective safety net programs."

Climate change effects

In addition to a growing scarcity of natural resources such as land, water and biodiversity "global agriculture will have to cope with the effects of climate change, notably higher temperatures, greater rainfall variability and more frequent extreme weather events such as floods and droughts," Diouf warned today.

Climate change would reduce water availability and lead to an increase in plant and animal pests and diseases. "The combined effects of climate change could reduce potential output by up to 30 percent in Africa and up to 21 percent in Asia," he noted.

"The challenge is not only to increase global future production but to increase it where it is mostly needed and by those who need it most. There should be a special focus on smallholder farmers, women and rural households and their access to land, water and high quality seeds...and other modern inputs."

It is also important to bridge the technology gap between countries through knowledge transfer using North-South, South-South and triangular cooperation to achieve sustainable increases in agricultural production and productivity.

"A special challenge is posed by water as climate change will make rainfall increasingly unreliable."

A special challenge was posed by water as climate change would make rainfall increasingly unreliable, Diouf said. Investment in improved water control and water management should be considered a priority.

Competition from biofuel

Also being discussed at this week's forum is how food production would also face increasing competition from the biofuel market "which has the potential to change the fundamentals of agricultural market systems," according to Diouf.

Increased use of food crops for biofuel production could have serious implications for food security, according to the FAO report on how to feed the world. "A recent study estimates that continued rapid expansion of biofuel production up to 2050 would lead to the number of undernourished pre-school children in Africa and South Asia being 3 and 1.7 million higher than would have been otherwise the case. Therefore, policies promoting the use of foodbased biofuels need to be reconsidered with the aim of reducing the competition between food and fuel for scarce resources."

Pennsylvania farm photo by David Braun

At this week's Forum, about 300 experts from around the world will review and debate the investment needs, technologies and policy measures needed to secure the world's food supplies by 2050. "$44 billion a year of official development assistance will need to be invested in agriculture in developing countries--against the $7.9 billion that is being spent now," the FAO says. "Higher investments, including from national budgets, foreign direct investment and private sector resources, should be made for better access to modern inputs, more irrigation systems, machinery, storage, more roads and better rural infrastructures, as well as more skilled and better trained farmers."

Through its conclusions and recommendations the Forum will contribute to the debate and outcome of the World Summit on Food Security scheduled at FAO headquarters on November 16-18, to be attended by Heads of State and Government from FAO's 192 Member Nations.

"It is hoped the Summit will agree then on the complete and rapid eradication of hunger so that every human being on Earth can enjoy the most fundamental of all human rights--the "right to food" and thus to decent life," the FAO said.

Delegates at the FAO High-Level Expert Forum on "How to Feed the World in 2050", in Rome, today.

©FAO/Giulio Napolitano

The problems to be resolved

On its Web site How to Feed the World 2050, trhe FAO says these are the problems that must be resolved:

• Will we be able to produce enough food at affordable prices or will rising food prices drive more of the world's population into poverty and hunger?
• How much spare capacity in terms of land and water do we have to feed the world in 2050?
• What are the new technologies that can help us use scarce resources more efficiently, increase and stabilize crop and livestock yields?
• Are we investing enough in research and development for breakthroughs to be available in time?
• Will new technologies be available to the people who will need them most - the poor?
• How much do we need to invest in order to help agriculture adapt to climate change, and how much can agriculture contribute to mitigating extreme weather events?

 

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Swapping field clothes for a suit and tie, conservation biologist Stuart Pimm attended a United Nations event last week on forests and climate change. He was among world leaders and distinguished thinkers and activists invited to publicly express their commitment and support for the role of forests as an option to mitigate the emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

The forest event followed the Summit on Climate Change, convened at the UN a day earlier "to mobilize political will and strengthen momentum for a fair, effective, and ambitious climate deal" in Copenhagen this December.

Officials from almost every country will gather in Copenhagen to try to agree a new climate treaty as a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, the first phase of which expires in 2012. The conference, also known as COP15, is widely regarded as a critical opportunity for humanity to try to get a grip on the problem of climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.

The meeting on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (REDD) convened by Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon at the United Nations, New York.

Photo courtesy United Nations

By Stuart L. Pimm
Special Contributor to NatGeo News Watch

United Nations, New York--September 23, 2009, 5 a.m. Another morning when the alarm goes off while it's still very dark. When I dress, it's not my boots and field khakis that I put on, but a white shirt, fumbling at this early hour with the cufflinks, and a charcoal grey suit.

The flight to New York is just over an hour. Then a taxi. It can't get me very close to my destination. First, I see what must be every policeman in the city, then the traffic slows to a crawl, then a standstill, and I continue my journey on foot.

Different kind of jungle

This morning I'm off to a different kind of "jungle" and it requires different field clothes. The United Nations General Assembly is in session and I have an invitation to watch a "high level event."

What happens here may decide whether the world's forests, their biodiversity, and their indigenous peoples, have a future.

The last few blocks have the feel of a street fair. Lots of noisy people waving posters, shouting slogans--and one, carrying a placard reading simply "Indict him!", nearly knocks me over.

I wonder who the "him" is, thinking there might be 192 national leaders to choose from, then remember that some would be "her," so that narrows the field just a bit.

Finally, I reach the right street corner, see someone holding a small sign "REDD," and, in short order, I am whisked through security into the relative tranquility of the UN building.

REDD is for "Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation." It is a UN program that seeks to generate income for countries that provide sustainable management of forests while also contributing to important reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

There's a lot of science involved and the world's forests are at stake. I worry: will this meeting of the world's top politicians--its presidents and prime ministers--have got the message?

Burning tropical forests, like this in southern Venezuela, contribute one fifth of all the greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere due to human activity--more that all the emissions from Europe.

Photo by Stuart L. Pimm

The United Nations Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, introduces the proceedings. He recognizes the commitment to the meeting--more than 85 governments are represented in the room, 18 of them by their heads of state.

Then he nails the key points:

• Deforestation causes 20 percent of the emissions of global greenhouse gases.
• Hundreds of million of mostly poor people live in forests and depend on the ecosystem services they provide.
• Forests harbor the greatest share of the planet's biodiversity.

Some background: A total of 183 countries have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol--an agreement to reduce the greenhouse gases that are disrupting the planet.

People often think that this is entirely a problem for industrial nations, such as the U.S., European countries, Japan, and so on. If so, the list of top emitters would surprise: after China and the U.S., come Brazil and Indonesia.

Brazil and Indonesia get to that position because of their high rates of deforestation.

Guyana in South America still has most of its forests and, with the areas of adjacent Venezuela (seen here) and northern Brazil constituting one of the largest remaining blocks of tropical forest.

Photo by Stuart L. Pimm

Under the Kyoto Protocol, developing countries cannot receive credit for the benefits their forests provide as the major stores of global carbon. REDD aims to change that.

Brazil's neighbor, Guyana, still has most of its forests. Its president, Bharrat Jagdeo, gave the event's most forceful presentation. "We all profess to know how important forests are," he started, then asked why REDD hadn't been given the attention of other solutions. "We need to correct that this afternoon."

Certainly, there were technical problems, he noted, but there are also technical problems with alternatives such as employing renewable energy. He felt that countries were focusing too much on REDD's difficulties. "This is the lowest-cost [greenhouse gas] abatement solution," he said. 

Indeed, studies done by the Union of Concerned Scientists show that about U.S. $25 billion in forest conservation would prevent a billion tons of carbon going into the atmosphere.

Stopping deforestation is a bargain compared to other solutions.

Amazon sunrise: tropical forests are home to 70 percent of the planet's biodiversity.

Photo by Stuart L. Pimm 

From the point of view of the developed world, Sweden's prime minister, Fredrik Reinfeldt, spoke on behalf of the European Union. He too started with the importance of forests--home to "70 percent of the world's biodiversity."

Deforestation was running at "13 million hectares [50,000 square miles] per year between 2000 and 2005," Reinfeldt said. Unless the world's nations could reduce that by half by 2020, there would be no way to keep the planet from warming at least two degrees, he warned.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton did not attend. Neither did British Prime Minister Gordon Brown. But a British official read Brown's statement. Yes, public funding was vital, the British agreed, but so too was the private sector who could use carbon markets to offset their emissions. (Companies could compensate for their carbon emissions by investing in carbon-trapping opportunities like forests.) 

With colleagues, I have spent a career documenting forest-loss and the species extinctions it causes. Would this science get onto the political agenda? I need not have worried. It has.

But would the broad international agreements on the science be enough to effect real change?

"The core point is will there be adequate funds to do this?"

While president Jagdeo applauded Norway's financial commitments and Brazil's efforts to reduce deforestation, his main point was emphatic: "the core point is will there be adequate funds to do this?" Can enough money be raised through carbin markets and other global sources to make forest conservaton sustainable?

I knew from previous events, drinks and canapés would follow. From the windowless meeting chamber, we trouped into a lounge with an impressive view overlooking the river.

I wasn't just there for the snacks, for there were short talks by two women who I have long admired, but never met.

Wangari Maathai is a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, rewarded for her work in environmental conservation, women's rights and--so relevant to the day's events--planting trees.

Victoria Tauli-Corpuz chairs the UN Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues. She played a central role is getting the UN to adopt the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.

Forests are home to many indigenous groups, some still living in voluntary isolation.  Others, such as these Waorani in Ecuador, were born as nomads in the forest and still live traditional lives.

Photos by Stuart L. Pimm

Yes, REDD is about billions of tons of carbon. And about millions of species. Maathai and Tauli-Corpuz understood that. But their unique and powerful message is that REDD is about people--whose lives and whose homes are destroyed when we clear the world's forests.

 

Professor Stuart L. Pimm is a conservation biologist at Duke University, North Carolina. A former member of the National Geographic Committee for Research and Exploration, Pimm is the author of dozens of books and research papers, including the book "The World According to Pimm: A Scientist Audits the Earth."

 

 

Read earlier blog posts by Stuart Pimm>>

 

A sturdy condom could be humankind's best weapon to prevent a climate calamity, according to a cost-benefit analysis by British economists.

Contraception is almost five times cheaper than conventional green technologies as a means of combating climate change, the London School of Economics concluded after comparing all the alternatives to reducing future emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere.

The simplest solution, in other words, is to cap human population growth.

The study looks only at the economic alternatives. The organizers of the research are fully aware of the controversial nature of the suggestion that the human population growth rate needs to be slowed, which is perhaps why they point out that that every additional person, "especially each rich person" in developed countries, reduces everyone's share of the planet's dwindling resources even further.

Distribution of resource-rich populations, as suggested by electricity consumption at night.

Image courtesy NASA

Each U.S. $7 spent on basic family planning over the next four decades would reduce global CO2 emissions by more than a tonne (2,200 pounds), said the Optimum Population Trust (OPT), a British think tank concerned with the impact of population growth on the environment. OPT commissioned the research from the London School of Economics.

"To achieve the same result with low-carbon technologies would cost a minimum of $32," OPT said in a statement."The UN estimates that 40 per cent of all pregnancies worldwide are unintended."

Fewer Emitters, Lower Emissions, Less Cost 

The report, "Fewer Emitters, Lower Emissions, Less Cost," concludes that "considered purely as a method of reducing future CO2 emissions," family planning is more cost-effective than leading low-carbon technologies. It says family planning should be seen as one of the primary methods of emissions reduction.

Meeting basic family planning needs along the lines suggested would save more than billion tons of CO2 between now and 2050--equivalent to nearly six times the annual emissions of the U.S. and almost 60 times the UK's annual total, OPT said.

"It's always been obvious that total emissions depend on the number of emitters as well as their individual emissions--the carbon tonnage can't shoot down, as we want, while the population keeps shooting up."

Roger Martin, chair of OPT, said the findings vindicated OPT's stance that population growth must be included in the climate change debate. "It's always been obvious that total emissions depend on the number of emitters as well as their individual emissions--the carbon tonnage can't shoot down, as we want, while the population keeps shooting up," Martin said.

"The taboo on mentioning this fact has made the whole climate change debate so far somewhat unreal. Stabilizing population levels has always been essential ecologically, and this study shows it's economically sensible too.

"The population issue must now be added into the negotiations for the Copenhagen climate change summit in December.

"This part of the solution is so easy, and so cheap, and would bring so many other social and economic benefits, from health and education to the empowerment of women. It would also ease all the other environmental problems we face--the rapid shrinkage of soil, fresh water, forests, fisheries, wildlife and oil reserves and the looming food crisis."

All of these problems would be easier to solve with fewer people, and ultimately impossible to solve with ever more, Martin added.

"Meanwhile each additional person, especially each rich person in the OECD countries, reduces everyone's share of the planet's dwindling resources even faster.

"Non-coercive population policies are urgently needed in all countries. The taboo on discussing this is no longer defensible."

In this UN map of world contraceptive use in 2007, the scale ranges from pale yellow (less than 20 percent) to dark blue (75 percent or more).

The London School of Economics study, based on the principle that "fewer people will emit fewer tonnes of carbon dioxide," models the consequences of meeting all "unmet need" for family planning, defined as the number of women who wish to delay or terminate childbearing but who are not using contraception, OPT said.

"One recent estimate put this figure at 200 million. UN data suggest that meeting unmet need for family planning would reduce unintended births by 72 per cent, reducing projected world population in 2050 by half a billion to 8.64 billion. Between 2010 and 2050 12 billion fewer "people-years" would be lived - 326 billion against 338 billion under current projections."

The 34 gigatonnes of CO2 saved in this way would cost $220 billion--roughly $7 a tonne. However, the same CO2 saving would cost over $1 trillion if low-carbon technologies were used, OPT said. "The $7 cost of abating a tonne of CO2 using family planning compares with $24 for wind power, $51 for solar, $57-83 for coal plants with carbon capture and storage, $92 for plug-in hybrid vehicles and $131 for electric vehicles."

The study may understate the CO2 savings available because the estimates of unmet need are based on married women alone, yet some studies suggest up to 40 per cent of young unmarried women have had unwanted pregnancies, OPT added.

Said Martin, "The potential for tackling climate change by addressing population growth through better family planning, alongside the conventional approach, is clearly enormous and we shall be urging all those involved in the Copenhagen process to take it fully on board."

What do you think about this? Should the leaders meeting in Copenhagen have a serious discussion about addressing population growth through better family planning? 

Zookeepers at Chicago's Lincoln Park Zoo are celebrating the birth this week of a shingleback skink. "A miniature replica of the adults, this scaly newborn has a face only a mother, and perhaps a zookeeper, could love," Lincoln Park said in the caption released with this photo.

Photo of shingleback skinks by Joel Pond

Native to Australia, shingleback skinks are sometimes called two-headed skinks due to their deceptive characteristics, the zoo said. "Their tail is shaped exactly like their head (minus the eyes and mouth). This feature is effective at confusing predators."

Although the shingleback skink is fairly common in the wild, births are rare in zoos. This is Lincoln Park Zoo's fourth birth since 2000.

For more photos of animals in zoos, visit Zoo News >>

The first integrated analysis for all coastal areas of the world has ranked hotspots of human impact.

The hottest hotspot is at the mouth of the Mississippi River, says Benjamin S. Halpern, lead author of the study, with the other top 10 in Asia and the Mediterranean.

Nutrient runoff from farms draining into the Mississippi has caused a persistent "dead zone" in the Gulf of Mexico, where the river runs into the ocean. The dead zone is caused by an overgrowth of algae that feeds on the nutrients and takes up most of the oxygen in the water.

The hottest hotspot of land-based impact on marine ecosystems is the Mississippi River. The river plume is shown here as seen from space.

Image by NASA

The Mississippi mouth and the other hotspots are areas where conservation efforts will almost certainly fail if they don't directly address what people are doing on land upstream from these locations, said Halpern, who is based at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) at the University of California in Santa Barbara (UCSB).

The study was published in the Journal of Conservation Letters.

Global hotspots where human activities on land are impacting coastal marine ecosystems. The numbers show the rank order of the hottest hotspots (red dots). The blue and green dots are land-based activities that are having an important effect on marine systems but not as much as those areas marked by the red dots.

Illustration courtesy B. Halpern and colleagues, NCEAS

"Resource management and conservation in coastal waters must address a litany of impacts from human activities, from the land, such as urban runoff and other types of pollution, and from the sea," Halpern said.

"One of the great challenges is to decide where and how much to allocate limited resources to tackling these problems."

"One of the great challenges is to decide where and how much to allocate limited resources to tackling these problems," he said. "Our results identify where it is absolutely imperative that land-based threats are addressed--so-called hotspots of land-based impact--and where these land-based sources of impact are minimal or can be ignored."

The study surveyed four key land-based drivers of ecological change:

• nutrient input from agriculture in urban settings
• organic pollutants derived from pesticides
• inorganic pollutants from urban runoff
• direct impact of human populations on coastal marine habitats.

 

Not All Coastal Waters Fully Impacted

A large portion of the world's coastlines experience very little effect of what happens on land, nearly half of the coastline and more than 90 percent of all coastal waters, Halpern said.

"This is because a vast majority of the planet's landscape drains into relatively few very large rivers, that in turn affect a small amount of coastal area.

"In these places with little impact from human activities on land, marine conservation can and needs to focus primarily on what is happening in the ocean. For example: fishing, climate change, invasive species, and commercial shipping."

Coauthors from NCEAS are Colin M. Ebert, Carrie V. Kappel, Matthew Perry, Kimberly A. Selkoe, and Shaun Walbridge. Fiorenza Micheli of Stanford University's Hopkins Marine Station and Elizabeth M. P. Madin of UCSB's Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology are also co-authors. Selkoe is also affiliated with the University of Hawaii's Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology.

NCEAS is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF). The David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the National Marine Sanctuaries, and an NSF Graduate Research Fellowship provided additional support for this research.

The most complete map of the Earth's terrain, showing highly detailed elevations for more than nine tenths of the planet's surface, has been released for free public use.

Global Map Image: In this colorized version, low elevations are purple, medium elevations are greens and yellows, and high elevations are orange, red and white.

NASA and Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and industry (METI) released the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) to the worldwide public yesterday.

1,300,000 Images

The GDEM was created by processing and stereo-correlating 1,300,000 optical images, covering Earth's land surface between 83 degrees North and 83 degrees South latitudes, according to a news statement about the map.

The GDEM is produced with 30-meter (98-feet) postings, and is formatted as 23,000 one-by-one-degree tiles. It is available for download from NASA's Earth Observing System data archive and Japan's Ground Data System.

Los Angeles Basin Image: The Los Angeles Basin is bordered on the north by the San Gabriel Mountains. Other smaller basins are separated by smaller mountain ranges, like the Verdugo Hills, and the Santa Monica Mountains.

Death Valley Image: Death Valley, California, has the lowest point in North America, Badwater at 85.5 meters (282 feet) below sea level. It is also the driest and hottest location in North America.

Located in eastern California and western Nevada, Death Valley forms part of Death Valley National Park. The region is characterized by deep valleys and high mountain ranges, located in the large Basin and Range province of the western United States. This view looks towards the northwest.

Furnace Creek ranch in the right foreground is the only place on the valley floor where vegetation grows year-round due to water channeled through Furnace Creek.

Himalayan Glaciers in Bhutan Image: In the Bhutan Himalayas, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer data have revealed significant spatial variability in glacier flow, such that the glacier velocities in the end zones on the south side exhibit significantly lower velocities (9 to 18 meters, or 30 to 60 feet per year), versus much higher flow velocities on the north side (18 to 183 meters, or 60 to 600 feet per year).

The higher velocity for the northern glaciers suggests that the southern glaciers have substantially stagnated ice. This view looks towards the northwest.

All images and captions courtesy NASA/METI

 

The birth of this tawny frogmouth at Seattle's Woodland Park Zoo a couple of weeks ago caused a stir on the Internet, where it became known as a cottonball with a beak. The pictures immediately below here show what it looked like at a day old.

Now the chick is growing fast. At 20 days old, in the top picture, it "is doing great and meeting its expected developmental benchmarks," the zoo said in a statement yesterday.

Tawny frogmouths are nocturnal birds native to Australia, Tasmania and southern New Guinea. Although frogmouths have many similar habits to owls, they are actually more closely related to nightjars and oilbirds.

The bird born at Woodland Park Zoo marks the first time the species has hatched at the 110-year-old zoo.

"The birth is significant for the zoo population in North America. Woodland Park is one of only four zoos to have successfully bred this species in the last six years," the zoo said.

Zoo staff artificially incubated the egg for 25 days (incubation is typically 28-30 days). "Within an hour of hatching, staff returned the chick to the nest for the parents to take over parental care. The parents are attentive and protective of the chick and, based on the chick's weight gain, they are doing a good job of feeding their chick."

The 4-year-old mother and father arrived at Woodland Park earlier this year from Taronga Zoo in Sydney, Australia.

The chick, shown here with dad, remains off exhibit with its parents.

All photos by Ryan Hawk/Woodland Park Zoo

The Geography of Swine Flu and Other Pandemics

The United Kingdom is the country most at risk to the spread of a swine flu epidemic, reports Maplecroft, a research organization that focuses on global risks to business.

The UK-based company released three maps and indices revealing the countries most at risk from an influenza pandemic, including swine flu and bird (avian) flu.

Maplecroft also created the Influenza Pandemic Risk Index (IPRI), which consists of three categories: Risk of Emergence, Risk of Spread, and Capacity to Contain. "Each index generates a list of countries most at risk and that require a tailored policy response on the part of government and business," Maplecroft said in a statement.

The map of Risk of Spread shows the United Kingdom most at risk to the spread of an influenza pandemic, ranking number 1 out of 213 countries. The Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Russia, Canada and Japan are also categorized as extreme risk because of their high population density, urbanization and busy airports.

Even though the UK and other developed Western nations are at extreme risk of spread, their capacity to contain influenza pandemics ranks low risk, however. "Large stockpiling of drugs and a sophisticated health infrastructure, which the Capacity to Contain index captures, means they have very effective measures with which to fight human influenza," Maplecroft explained.

Sub-Saharan Africa stands out as the area least able to contain pandemic influenza with 27 out of the 30 most extreme risk countries.

"The capacity of a country to contain the spread of human influenza depends on factors of wealth, health infrastructure, education resources, information and communication networks, and governance."

"The Risk of Emergence index unsurprisingly categorises Mexico as extreme risk and ranks the country as fourth most at risk, whilst Vietnam, China and Bangladesh top the table," Maplecroft said.

Countries most prone to risk of emergence of swine or avian flu in humans are poorer countries that have dense rural populations, with living quarters in close proximity to livestock, Maplecroft said. This is compounded by poor hygiene, lack of access to clean water and sanitation and poor public health education.

Newly Emerging Set of Global Risks

"It is important to see a newly emerging set of global risks--whether pandemics, conflict and terrorism, resource security including water stress, or climate change as inter-related," said Alyson Warhurst, Chair of Strategy and International Development at Warwick Business School and one of the founding directors of Maplecroft.

"Climate change is causing drought and flooding which in turn leads to crop failures and the destruction of livelihoods which in turn lead to poverty and the conditions that we see increase vulnerability to pandemic flu."

Sources used to compile the Influenza Pandemic Risk Index include: WHO, UNESCO, FAO, World Organisation for Animal Health, World Bank, Environmental Research Group Oxford, World Resources Institute and the International Telecommunications Union (ITU).

The three IPRI maps and risk categories may be accessed on the Maplecroft Web site.

Maplecroft specializes in the analysis and creative visualization of global risks. Indicators, reports and interactive GIS maps are among the tools the company uses to assess vulnerability to over 100 global risks. The tools allow major international bodies to formulate strategy, control risk exposure, secure industry leadership and work towards a sustainable future, the company said in its statement.

The Geography of Peace

The world has become slightly less peaceful in the past year--a consequence perhaps of intensified violent conflict in some countries, the effects of rapidly rising food and fuel prices in 2008, and the global economic meltdown.

"Rapidly rising unemployment, pay freezes and falls in the value of house prices, savings and pensions is causing popular resentment in many countries, with political repercussions that have been registered by the Global Peace Index (GPI) through various indicators measuring safety and security in society," says the Institute for Economics and Peace, a global think tank dedicated to the research and education of the relationship between economic development, business and peace.

The results of the Institute's Global Peace Index for 2009--the third annual measure which combines a number of indicators selected by academics and leaders of peace institutions--ranked 144 countries from most peaceful to least peaceful.

The 144 countries encompass almost 99 percent of the world's population and over 87 percent of the planet's land mass.

Indicators combined internal and external factors ranging from a nation's level of military expenditure to its relations with neighboring countries and the level of respect for human rights. Indicators include how easy it is to obtain guns, levels of organized crime, proportion of people in prison, the likelihood of violent protests and how stable government institutions are.

The GPI was founded by Steve Killelea, an Australian international technology entrepreneur and philanthropist. Endorsed by a number of Nobel Peace Prize laureates, the GPI creates a snapshot of relative peacefulness among nations while continuing to contribute to an understanding of what factors help create or sustain more peaceful societies.

New Zealand Is the Most at Peace

New Zealand is ranked as the country most at peace, followed by Denmark and Norway.

Small, stable and democratic countries are consistently ranked highest; 14 of the top 20 countries are Western or Central European countries, according to the GPI 2009 executive summary.

"This is, however, a reduction from 16 last year, with Hungary and Slovakia both slipping out of the top 20, while Qatar and Australia moved up to 16th and 19th place respectively," the GPI summary says.

All five Scandinavian countries are in the top ten of the GPI. Island nations generally fare well, although Madagascar fell by 30 places amid mounting political instability and violent demonstrations.

Iraq Is the Least at Peace

"For the third year running, the country ranked least at peace is Iraq. Afghanistan and Somalia follow--countries that are in a state of ongoing conflict and upheaval."

The average score for the nations surveyed in the 2009 GPI is 1.964 (based on a 1-5 scale). There is little variance between the overall scores of the top 20 countries (1.202 for New Zealand and 1.481 for Chile), although the 20 lowest ranked countries exhibit a far greater spread, varying between 2.485 (Sri Lanka) and 3.341 (Iraq).

Working with the Economist Intelligence Unit, the Institute for Economics and Peace, the think tank that houses the GPI, looked at 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators that affect a country's GPI ranking.

U.S. Is Not Changed Much

The U.S. score though did not change much despite the economic crisis, indicating that the U.S. is able to weather major crises without suffering from serious political instability or increased violence.

The U.S. ranking did change, however, with the country jumping six spots higher from 89 last year to 83 in 2009. The jump was partially due to a drop in the GPI indicator measuring the likelihood for terrorist attacks. It was also the result of other countries seeing a decrease in their GPI ranking.

GPI indicators that prevented the U.S. from being ranked higher were:

• High number of jailed population per 100,000 people.
• Ease of access to firearms.
• Number of deaths from organized external conflicts

 

Top Ten Countries
(Most Peaceful)

1 New Zealand
2 Denmark
2 Norway
4 Iceland
5 Austria
6 Sweden
7 Japan
8 Canada
9 Finland
9 Slovenia

Bottom Five Countries
(Least Peaceful)

140 Sudan
141 Israel
142 Somalia
143 Afghanistan
144 Iraq

Countries With Biggest Index Changes
(Change in rank, 2008-2009)

Top Five Risers
 50 Bosnia and Herzegovina +23
100 Angola +16
106 Congo, Republic of the +15
 54 Egypt +13
 87 Trinidad and Tobago +11

Top Five Fallers
 72 Madagascar -30
108 Mexico -16
 54 Latvia -16
123 South Africa -15
119 Yemen -13

By Tasha Eichenseher in Istanbul, Turkey

Finding water is usually the work of women and girls, according to Joke Muylwijk, executive director of the Gender Water Alliance, a network of more than a thousand people around the globe dedicated to equitable access to water resources and decision-making.

"There are some women who spend their whole lives looking for water," Muylwijk said.

Gary White is executive director of WaterPartners, a nonprofit that aims to provide safe water and sanitation in developing countries.

According to White, 200 million hours are spent every day walking to collect water. "It is a huge opportunity cost for women who could be working paying jobs, or children who could be in school," he added.

Muylwijk and White said women are generally absent in water decisions, but should play a critical role.

For example, Muylwijk said, the opening ceremony of the 5th World Water Forum was conducted by men only and out of 19 members on the forum steering committee there are no women.

At least in the developing world, women are generally more invested in water resources, and are more likely to carry an improvement project through to completion, White said.

Fadia Daibes, an independent consultant working on water resource management and policy in East Jerusalem, tells National Geographic more about the role, or lack of a role, women play in delicate Israeli-Palestinian water negotiations.

Video interview by Tasha Eichenseher

Meena Bilgi calls herself a gender advocate.

Based in Gujarat, India, Bilgi is employed by governments, nonprofits, and development agencies to advise on how and why to include women in water, agriculture, and health projects.

She said it may take years for men in rural communities, where she works, to accept women in official decision-making or managerial roles.

"Mainstreaming gender is a gradual process," she said.

But, according to Bilgi, many development projects in India fail because they don't include women, who are usually more familiar with the available natural resources because they are often the ones in the fields, grazing cattle in the forests, and fetching water.

Bilgi tells National Geographic more about her work and progress she and her colleagues have made.

Video interview by Tasha Eichenseher

Related National Geographic News story:

Water Deal Elemental to Middle East Peace

Earlier blog posts from the 5th World Water Forum:

Lack of Toilets "One of the Biggest Scandals in the Last 50 Years"

Nuggets of Hope in the Face of Bleak Outlook for Freshwater

Africa's Water News: Green Beer, At-Risk Aquatic Life, Clean Hands 

 

Tasha Eichenseher's attendance at the 5th World Water Forum is sponsored by Media21 -- a Switzerland-based journalism foundation that brings reporters and producers from around the globe to work together on coverage of major issues such as human rights, climate change, and health.

By Tasha Eichenseher in Istanbul

More than 20,000 people from at least 175 countries are buzzing around Istanbul this week talking about water.

The freshwater that forms Earth's rivers, lakes, aquifer, glaciers, and wetlands --- the same water that fills our glasses and toilet bowls -- connects every one of the planet's 6.5 billion citizens and myriad aquatic species.

Water is embedded in every unit of energy we use, meal we eat, and piece of clothing we wear.

It is essential for life, yet, according to the United Nations, there are nearly 1 billion people without access to a safe, clean source, and 2.5 billion without access to adequate sanitation. [Read the National Geographic News story: Lack of Toilets Harming Health of Billions, UN Report Says.]

Policy makers, economists, scientists, engineers, development agencies, business leaders, and environmental organizations have convened in Turkey for the 5th World Water Forum to find a way to avoid water bankruptcy and achieve global water security.

They face an enormous challenge. According to a report the U.N. released yesterday, the future looks bleak.

Population growth, the financial crisis, and poverty coupled with climate change put a wrench in plans to provide basic water service, according to the report, which looked at water management in 25 countries.

African countries are in the worst shape. In Sudan, where rainfall has decreased over the last several years, nearly 55 percent of all freshwater is used for agriculture, and water use for crops is expected to double by 2025.

Asia and island countries in the Pacific are home to almost 60 percent of the world population, but only 36 percent of the planet's freshwater.

In the decades before 2000, China had an average of about 66 billion cubic meters of renewable water resources. Today, because of pollution and other factors, the country has less than an estimated 49 billion cubic meters while demand has steadily risen.

In Europe, climate change may cause sea level rise that floods two-thirds of the Netherlands -- where 96 percent of the population lives below sea level. And Istanbul itself faces significantly diminished groundwater due to saltwater intrusion from rising seas and unsustainable extraction.

"Inaction is no longer an option, and stepping out of the single sector 'water box' is necessary to properly address mounting problems," according to the report, referring to how water decisions have traditionally not been linked to other critical issues such as finance.

It is possible at this mega-conference to drown in technical jargon and policy analysis -- talk of frameworks, capacity, transparency, strategies and the millennium development goals.

But buried in the halls of the conference center -- part of which is a renovated factory that once provided fez hats and clothing for the Ottoman army -- there are success stories that can rise above the gloom and doom scenarios.

The U.N. report highlights a handful: irrigation efficiency improvements in Tunisia; decreased water use in Estonia; and legal rights to a minimum quantity of drinking water in Argentina.

Stay tuned for more.

Tasha Eichenseher's attendance at the 5th World Water Forum is sponsored by Media21 -- a Switzerland-based journalism foundation that brings reporters and producers from around the globe to work together on coverage of major issues such as human rights, climate change, and health.

NGS photo of Istanbul by David Boyer

Two Tasmanian Tigers in the Smithsonian's National Zoo, Washington D.C., about 1906, by E.J. Keller, from the Smithsonian Institution.

All the genes that the Tasmanian Tiger, an extinct carnivorous marsupial, inherited only from its mother will be revealed by an international team of scientists in a research paper to be published today in the online edition of Genome Research.

"The research marks the first successful sequencing of genes from this carnivorous marsupial," according to a news release by Penn State University.

"Tasmanian Tiger" is a common name of the extinct thylacine species (Thylacinus cynocephalus), which is more closely related to kangaroos and koalas than to tigers. The last known specimen died in a Tasmanian zoo in 1936.

Thylacines have played a central role in discussions about the possibility of bringing extinct species back to life, but despite the availability of many bones and other remains, previous attempts to read thylacine DNA had been unsuccessful.

But now Penn State researchers have cracked the problem, using new gene-sequencing technology and computational methods developed by Webb Miller, a professor of biology and of computer science and engineering, and Stephan C. Schuster, a professor of biochemistry and molecular biology.

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Proteas are best known as the national symbol of South Africa. Growing in size to as large as dinner plates, their flowers are a distinctive feature of Cape Town's Table Mountain.

Photo courtesy South African Tourism

New species of flowering plants called proteas are exploding onto the scene three times faster in parts of Australia and South Africa than anywhere else in the world, creating exceptional 'hotspots' of species richness, an international team of scientists reported today.

"Something special is happening in these regions: new species of proteas are appearing notably faster than elsewhere, and we suspect this could be the same case with other plant species too," said Vincent Savolainen, a biologist based at Imperial College London and the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, one of the authors of the new study.

"This study proves that the abundance of different kinds of proteas in these two areas isn't simply due to normal rates of species diversification occurring over a long period of time.

"This is the first step towards understanding why some parts of the planet with a Mediterranean-style climate have become species-rich biodiversity hotspots."

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Photo courtesy ARC Centre of Excellence

Spread across a vast swath of ocean spanning Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, Timor Leste, and the Solomon Islands -- an area half the size of the United States -- the Coral Triangle has the highest diversity of marine life of any area on Earth.

This "Amazon of the Seas," as it has been called by the WWF, contains three quarters of the world's known coral species, a third of the world's coral reefs, more than 3,000 species of fish, and the world's richest mangrove forests.

Home to more than 150 million people, the Coral Triangle generates billions of dollars in sea products each year, supporting the livelihood of more than two million fishers. The region is a major spawning ground for tuna, yellowfin and other valuable species that contribute to a perhaps as much as a third of the regional economy.

But all this is at risk from overfishing (including destructive fishing using dynamite and cyanide), coral bleaching and ocean acidification, tourism (including scuba diving), pollution, and sedimentation due to coastal development.

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